Centrus Energy (Centrus Energy) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Centrus Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Centrus Energy (Centrus Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Other Energy Sources » Centrus Energy Corp (AMEX:LEU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4CU:Germany 4CU:Germany

Address

6901 Rockledge Drive, Suite 800, Bethesda, MD, USA, 20817

Website

https://www.centrusenergy.com

Centrus Energy Corp is engaged in the supply of nuclear fuel and services for the nuclear power industry. It operates through the Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) and Technical solutions segments. The LEU segment has two components which include the sale of separative work units and uranium. The Technical Solutions segment provides advanced engineering, design, and manufacturing services to government and private sector customers. The majority of the firm's revenue gets derived from the LEU segment. It has a business presence in the U.S. and other countries, of which prime revenue is generated in the U.S.

Executives

Morris Bawabeh	10 percent owner	15 OCEAN AVENUE, BROOKLYN NY 11225
Shahram Ghasemian	officer: SVP, GC, CCO and Corp. Sec'y	CENTRUS ENERGY CORP., 6901 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, BETHESDA MD 20817
Bradley J Sawatzke	director	CENTRUS ENERGY CORP., 6901 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, BETHESDA MD 20817
Kirkland H Donald	director	C/O ENTERGY CORPORATION LEGAL DEPT., 639 LOYOLA AVE., 26TH FLOOR, NEW ORLEANS LA 70113
Tina W Jonas	director	C/O PASSUR AEROSPACE, INC, ONE LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 1900, STAMFORD CT 06901
Neil S Subin	director	2336 S.E. OCEAN BOULEVARD, #400, STUART FL 34996
W T Jagodinski	director	6415 THOMAS DRIVE, UNIT 1702, PANAMA CITY BEACH FL 32408
Mikel H Williams	director	21255 BURBANK BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367
Dennis John Scott	officer: VP,GEN COUNS, CCO & CORP SEC'Y	6901 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, BETHESDA MD 20817
Donelson John M A	officer: V.P., Marketing and Sales	6901 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, BETHESDA MD 20817
Philip O Strawbridge	officer: SVP, CFO, CAO & Treasurer	6901 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, BETHESDA MD 20817
Daniel B Poneman	officer: Chief Strategic Officer	6901 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, BETHESDA MD 20817
Kevin J Harrill	officer: Controller & CAO	6901 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, BETHESDA MD 20817
John C Dorrian	officer: Controller & Chief Acctg Ofcr.	6901 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, BETHESDA MD 20817
Larry B Cutlip	officer: VP, FIELD OPERATIONS	6901 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, BETHESDA MD 20817