Jefferies Financial Group (Jefferies Financial Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Jefferies Financial Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Jefferies Financial Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Jefferies Financial Group (Jefferies Financial Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Jefferies Financial Group Inc (NYSE:JEF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LN3:Germany

Address

520 Madison Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.jefferies.com

Jefferies Financial Group Inc is a diversified financial services company. Its business consists of investment banking and capital markets (Jefferies Group), commercial mortgage banking (Berkadia), asset management (Leucadia Asset Management), and online platform for foreign exchange trading (FXCM), a real estate company (Homefed), and vehicle finance (Foursight Capital and Chrome Capital). The company is also involved in other businesses, such as oil and gas exploration, through JETX and Vitesse Energy; automobile dealerships, through Gargadia; fixed wireless broadband services, through Linkem; and gold and silver mining through Golden Queen, among others.

Executives

Joseph S Steinberg	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	C/O LEUCADIA NATIONAL CORP, 315 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, NEW YORK NY 10010
Mark Lawrence Cagno	officer: VP and Co-Controller	C/O JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GROUP INC., 520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Matthew Scott Larson	officer: EVP, Co-CFO	C/O JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GROUP INC., 520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Brian P Friedman	director, officer: President
Rocco J Nittoli	officer: Treasurer	315 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, NEW YORK NY 10010
Thomas W Jones	director	ALTRIA GROUP INC, 6601 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230
O Kane Michael T	director	80 HICKORY HILL BLVD, TOTOWA NJ 07512
Melissa Weiler	director	399 PARK AVE 38TH FL, NEW YORK DC 10022
Matrice Ellis-kirk	director	C/O JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GROUP INC, 520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Stuart Harry Reese	director
Barry J Alperin	director	C/O HENRY SCHEIN INC, 135 DURYEA RD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Jacob M Katz	director	C/O HERC HOLDINGS INC., 27500 RIVERVIEW CENTER BLVD., BONITA SPRINGS FL 34134
Maryanne Gilmartin	director	C/O JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GROUP INC., 520 MADISON AVE., NEW YORK NY 10022
John Merritt Dalton	officer: Controller	520 MADISON AVE., NEW YORK NY 10022
Teresa S Gendron	officer: Chief Financial Officer	520 MADISON AVE., C/O JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GROUP INC., NEW YORK NY 10022