MarketAxess Holdings (MarketAxess Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is MarketAxess Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MarketAxess Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MarketAxess Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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MarketAxess Holdings (MarketAxess Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » MarketAxess Holdings Inc (NAS:MKTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MWI:Germany MWI:Germany M1KT34:Brazil

Address

55 Hudson Yards, 15th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10001

Website

https://www.marketaxess.com

Founded in 2000, MarketAxess is a leading electronic fixed-income trading platform that connects broker/dealers and institutional investors. The company is primarily focused on credit based fixed income securities with its main trading products being U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds, Eurobonds, and Emerging Market corporate debt. Recently the company has expanded more aggressively into Treasuries and municipal bonds with the acquisitions of LiquidityEdge and MuniBrokers in 2019 and 2021, respectively. The company also provides pre- and post-trade services with its acquisition of Regulatory Reporting Hub from Deutsche Börse Group in 2020 adding to its product offerings.

Executives

Kevin M Mcpherson	officer: Global Head of Sales	C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC., 299 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10171
Christopher R Concannon	director, officer: President and COO	BATS GLOBAL MARKETS, 8050 MARSHALL DRIVE, SUITE 120, LENEXA KS 66214
Scott Pintoff	officer: General Counsel	C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS, INC., 55 HUDSON YARDS, FLOOR 15, NEW YORK NY 10001
Roupie Christophe Pierre Daniel	officer: Head of Europe & Asia	C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC., 299 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10171
Steven L Begleiter	director	650 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Richard Leon Prager	director	C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC., 55 HUDSON YARDS, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Nicholas Themelis	officer: Chief Information Officer	C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC., 140 BROADWAY, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Naineshkumar Shantilal Panchal	officer: Chief Information Officer	C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC., 55 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Antonio L Delise	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS, INC., 299 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10171
Richard M Mcvey	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC., 140 BROADWAY, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Christopher N. Gerosa	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PRIMUS ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC., 360 MADISON AVENUE, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Xiaojia Charles Li	director	C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC., 55 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Stephen P Casper	director	C/O CHARTER ATLANTIC CORPORATION, 200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10166
Kourtney Gibson	director	C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC., 55 HUDSON YARDS, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Justin Gerald Gmelich	director	C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC., 55 HUDSON YARDS, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001