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Avis Budget Group Predictability Rank


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2.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Rental & Leasing Services subindustry, Avis Budget Group's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Avis Budget Group Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, Avis Budget Group's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Avis Budget Group's Predictability Rank falls into.



Avis Budget Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Avis Budget Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Avis Budget Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Avis Budget Group Business Description

Avis Budget Group logo
Industry
Industrials » Business Services NAICS : 532111 SIC : 7514
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6 Sylvan Way, Parsippany, NJ, USA, 07054
Avis Budget Group Inc is a provider of automotive vehicle rental and car-sharing services. Its brands include Avis, Budget, and Zipcar. Avis is targeted to serve the premium commercial and leisure segments of the travel industry, while Budget is focused on value-conscious customers. The company operates its own network of rental locations and licenses its brands to franchisees. Zipcar is a car-sharing service that allows members to use the company-owned Zipcar fleet at an hourly rate. The company's largest region by revenue is the Americas.
Executives
Ferraro Joseph A. officer: President and CEO 6 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Martins Izilda P officer: EVP, Americas 6 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Sarma Karthik R. director, 10 percent owner ONE BRYANT PARK 39TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Srs Investment Management, Llc director, 10 percent owner 1 BRYANT PARK 39TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Hees Bernardo director, officer: Executive Chairman C/O THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY ONE PPG PLACE, SUITE 3200 PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Choi Brian J officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer C/O SRS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC ONE BRYANT PARK, 39TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Rankin Patrick K officer: President, International 6 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Lurie Glenn director C/O SYNCHRONOSS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. 200 CROSSING BLVD. BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Sparks Carl director 4315 NORTHAVEN ROAD DALLAS TX 75229
Krominga Lynn director 6 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
North John F officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer 150 N. BARTLETT STREET MEDFORD OR 97501
Sera Jean M officer: SVP, GC & Corp. Sec. AVIS BUDGET GROUP 6 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Fox Jeffrey H director ONE ALLIED DRIVE LITTLE ROCK AR 72202
Salerno F Robert director AVIS RENT A CAR INC 900 OLD COUNTRY RD GARDEN CITY NY 11530
Degenova Cathleen officer: Chief Accounting Officer 6 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054

Avis Budget Group Headlines

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