Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Co-Diagnostics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Co-Diagnostics (Co-Diagnostics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2401 South Foothill Drive, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84109
Co-Diagnostics Inc is a molecular diagnostics company. It develops, licenses, and commercializes molecular technologies such as lab systems (MDx device) and manufacture and sell reagents used for tests that are designed using the detection and/or analysis of nucleic acid molecules (DNA or RNA). CDI's low-cost system uses its tests to diagnose tuberculosis, Zika, hepatitis B and C, Malaria, dengue and HIV. The company's diagnostics systems enable very rapid, low-cost, sophisticated molecular testing for organisms and genetic diseases by greatly automating historically complex procedures in both the development and administration of tests.
Executives
| Brian Lee Brown |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
5322 W. BRIAR PARK ROAD, HERRIMAN UT 84096 |
| Ted Murphy |
director |
64 INDUSTRIAL RD., RICHMOND HILL A6 L4C2Y1 |
| Eugene Durenard |
director |
2401 S. FOOTHILL DRIVE SUITE D, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84109 |
| Dwight H Egan |
director, officer: CEO and President |
4049 S. HIGHLAND DRIVE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84124 |
| Richard S Serbin |
director |
750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| James B Nelson |
director |
26 WEST MISSION AVENUE, SUITE 8, SANTA BARBARA CA 93010 |
| Reed L Benson |
officer: CFO and Secretary |
7050 UNION PARK CENTER, #600, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84047 |
| Edward L. Murphy |
director |
2401 S. FOOTHILL DRIVE SUITE D, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84109 |
| Brent Satterfield |
director, officer: Chief Science Officer |
4049 S. HIGHLAND DRIVE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84124 |
| America 2030 Capital, Llc |
10 percent owner |
1301 SHILOH RD., NW, SUITE 1231, KENNESAW GA 30144 |
| Edward Borkowski |
director |
1500 CORPORATE DRIVE, SUITE 400, CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
| Frank J Kiesner |
director |
4049 S. HIGHLAND DRIVE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84124 |
| Reagents, Llc |
10 percent owner |
8160 S. HIGHLAND DR, SANDY UT 84093 |
| Legends Capital Group, Llc |
10 percent owner |
4049 S. HIGHLAND DRIVE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84124 |
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