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Cirrus Logic Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Competitive Comparison

For the Semiconductors subindustry, Cirrus Logic's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Cirrus Logic Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Semiconductors industry and Technology sector, Cirrus Logic's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Cirrus Logic's Predictability Rank falls into.

Cirrus Logic Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cirrus Logic Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cirrus Logic's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Cirrus Logic Business Description

Cirrus Logic logo
Technology » Semiconductors NAICS : 334413 SIC : 3674
Traded in Other Exchanges
800 West 6th Street, Austin, TX, USA, 78701
Cirrus Logic Inc is a provider of integrated circuits for audio and voice signal processing applications. The firm's products are organized into two streams: portable audio products, and non-portable audio and other products. These products include analog and mixed-signal components targeting mobile devices, smart homes, and applications in the automotive, energy, and industrial markets. Roughly half of the firm's revenue is generated in China, with the rest coming from the United States, Europe, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and countries across the world.
Baumgartner Jeffrey W officer: VP of R&D 800 W. 6TH STREET AUSTIN TX 78701
Lego Catherine P director 3787 WOODSIDE ROAD WOODSIDE CA 94062
Carter John C director 800 WEST 6TH STREET AUSTIN TX 78701
Forsyth John officer: President 800 W. 6TH STREET AUSTIN TX 78701
Hanford Deirdre director 700 EAST MIDDLEFIELD ROAD MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 9403
Tupman David J. director 1028 CHURCH ST. SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
Schuele Alan R director C/O SEVIN ROSEN FUNDS 13455 NOEL RD #1670 DALLAS TX 75240
Dehne Timothy R director C/O NATIONAL INSTRUMENTS 11500 MOPAC BLDG B AUSTIN TX 78759
Davern Alexander M director C/O NATIONAL INSTRUMENTS 11500 MOPAC BLDG C AUSTIN TX 78759
Anderson Scott Arnold officer: Senior VP of Supply Chain 1303 E ALGONQUIN RD SCHAUMBURG IL 60196
Rhode Jason P director, officer: CEO 2901 VIA FORTUNA AUSTIN TX 78746
Fluke Bradley J officer: VP & GM, MEMS Division 400 W CESAR CHAVEZ AUSTIN TX 78701
Case Thurman K officer: VP & CFO C/O CIRUS LOGIC INC 2901 VIA FORTUNA AUSTIN TX 78746
Benson Jodee officer: VP & Chief Culture Office 2901 VIA FORTUNA AUSTIN TX 78746
Thomas Scott officer: SVP General Counsel & Corp C/O CIRRUS LOGIC INC 800 WEST 6TH STREET AUSTIN TX 78701

Cirrus Logic Headlines

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