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Huron Consulting Group Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Consulting Services subindustry, Huron Consulting Group's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Huron Consulting Group Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, Huron Consulting Group's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Huron Consulting Group's Predictability Rank falls into.



Huron Consulting Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Huron Consulting Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Huron Consulting Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Huron Consulting Group Business Description

Huron Consulting Group logo
Industry
Industrials » Business Services NAICS : 541611 SIC : 8742
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
550 West Van Buren Street, Chicago, IL, USA, 60607
Huron Consulting Group Inc is a professional services firm. The company provides expertise in strategy, technology, operations, advisory services, & analytics through three operating segments namely Healthcare, Education, and Business Advisory. Healthcare segment helps the firms to transform and innovate the delivery model to focus on patient wellness by improving quality outcomes, minimizing care variation and fundamentally improving patient and population health, Education segment provides management consulting and technology solutions, and Business Advisory segment provides services to large and middle-market organizations, not-for-profit organizations, and private equity firms. It generates a majority of its revenue from the Healthcare Segment.
Executives
Zumwalt Debra director 149 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE MENLO PARK CA 94025
Roth James H director, officer: CEO HURON CONSULTING GROUP 550 WEST VAN BUREN STREET CHICAGO IL 60607
Hussey C. Mark officer: President and COO 550 WEST VAN BUREN STREET CHICAGO IL 60607
Mccartney John director US ROBOTICS INC 8100 MCCORMICK BLVD SKOKIE IL 60076
Featherstone Kyle officer: Controller 550 W. VAN BUREN 17TH FLOOR CHICAGO IL 60607
Lockhart H Eugene director OAK HILL FARM, P.O. BOX 489 4125 LOUISA ROAD KESWICK VA 22947
Sawyer Hugh E Iii director 1806 BALLY BUNION DRIVE DECATUR GA 30097
Singh-bushell Ekta director 9197 S. PEORIA ST. ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Torain Ernest W. Jr. officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Corp.Sec. 550 W. VAN BUREN 17TH FLOOR CHICAGO IL 60607
Massaro George director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: MASSARO GEORGE a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Kelly John D. officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer 555 WEST VAN BUREN STREET CHICAGO IL 60607
Wong Ellen officer: Chief Accounting Officer 550 WEST VAN BUREN STREET CHICAGO IL 60607
Ratekin Diane E. officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel, & Corp.Sec. 550 WEST VAN BUREN STREET CHICAGO IL 60607
Moody John S director MARSH MCLENNAN REALTY ADVISORS 1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10036
Edwards James D director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: EDWARDS JAMES D a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}

Huron Consulting Group Headlines

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