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Lululemon Athletica Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Lululemon Athletica Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Lululemon Athletica Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Lululemon Athletica Business Description

Lululemon Athletica logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical NAICS : 315990 SIC : 2399
Address
1818 Cornwall Avenue, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6J 1C7
Lululemon Athletica Inc. designs, distributes, and markets athletic apparel and accessories for women, men, and girls. Lululemon offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for both leisure and athletic activities such as yoga and running. The company also sells fitness accessories, such as bags, yoga mats, and equipment. Lululemon sells its products through more than 550 company-owned stores in 17 countries, e-commerce, outlets, and wholesale accounts. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Executives
Wilson Dennis J. other: Director by deputization C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Choe Michelle Sun officer: Chief Product Officer C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Mcdonald Calvin director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Burgoyne Celeste officer: EVP Americas Retail C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Casey Martin Michael director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: CASEY MARTIN MICHAEL a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Morfitt Martha A M director P.O. BOX 1441 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
White Emily director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Patrick Tricia director C/O ADVENT INERNATIONAL CORPORATION PRUDENTIAL TOWER, 800 BOYLSTON STREET BOSTON MA 02199
Mussafer David M director C/O ADVENT INTERNATIONAL CORP 75 STATE ST 29TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02104
Mcneill Jon director 45500 FREMONT BLVD FREMONT CA 94538
Ferris Stephanie director C/O VANTIV, INC. 8500 GOVERNORS HILL DRIVE CINCINNATI OH 45249
Murphy Glenn director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J1C7
Henry Kathryn director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA, INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Guido Patrick J. officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP 2905 PREMIERE PKWY, STE 300 DULUTH 2Q 30097
Neuburger Nicole officer: Chief Brand Officer C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7

Lululemon Athletica Headlines

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