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NetApp Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Computer Hardware subindustry, NetApp's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

NetApp Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, NetApp's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where NetApp's Predictability Rank falls into.



NetApp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

NetApp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of NetApp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


NetApp Business Description

NetApp logo
Industry
Technology » Hardware NAICS : 334112 SIC : 3572
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1395 Crossman Avenue, Sunnyvale, CA, USA, 94089
NetApp is a leading provider of enterprise data management and storage solutions. The company's three operating business units are products, software maintenance, and hardware maintenance. NetApp transitioned from a data center storage firm to a company with software data management solutions for multicloud environments. The California-headquartered company sells globally and has approximately 10,000 employees.
Executives
Allen Scott R. officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer 11690 N.W. 105TH STREET MIAMI FL 33178
Anderson Brad officer: EVP, SSSBU and CIBU ONE DELL WAY ROUND ROCK TX 78682
Hill Kathryn director 7 WORLD TRADE CENTER 250 GREENWICH STREET NEW YORK NY 10007
Ahuja Deepak director C/O TESLA MOTORS, INC. 3500 DEER CREEK ROAD PALO ALTO CA 94304
Schenkel Scott F. director C/O EBAY INC. 2025 HAMILTON AVE. SAN JOSE CA 95125
Kerr Deborah director 901 MARQUETTE AVENUE SUITE 3200 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Nevens Thomas Michael director C/O BORLAND SOFTWARE CORPORATION 20450 STEVENS CREEK BLVD, SUITE 800 CUPERTINO CA 95014
Shaheen George T director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SHAHEEN GEORGE T a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Held Gerald director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: HELD GERALD a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Cernuda Cesar officer: President 1395 CROSSMAN AVENUE SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Berry Michael J officer: EVP Finance & Operations, CFO C/O INFORMATICA CORPORATION 2100 SEAPORT BOULEVARD REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Fawcett Matthew K officer: SVP, GC & Secretary 495 EAST JAVA DRIVE SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Kurian George director, officer: CEO C/O NETAPP 495 E. JAVA DRIVE SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Pasek Ronald J officer: EVP Finance & Operations, CFO 101 INNOVATION DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95134
Richard Henri P officer: EVP, Go To Market FREESCALE SEMICONDUCTOR, INC. 2680 ZANKER RD, SUITE 200 SAN JOSE CA 95134

NetApp Headlines

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