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PENN Entertainment Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


PENN Entertainment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

PENN Entertainment Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PENN Entertainment Business Description

PENN Entertainment logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
825 Berkshire Boulevard, Suite 200, Wyomissing, PA, USA, 19610
Penn National Gaming Inc is the operator of gaming and racing properties and video gaming terminal operations in the U.S. It operates retail sports betting across the company's portfolio, as well as online sports betting, online social casino, bingo, and online casinos. It offers live sports betting at its properties in Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
Executives
Black Gupta Vimla director 825 BERKSHIRE BLVD. WYOMISSING PA 19610
Hendrix Felicia officer: EVP and CFO 825 BERKSHIRE BLVD. WYOMISSING PA 19610
George Todd officer: EVP, Operations 825 BERKSHIRE BLVD. WYOMISSING PA 19610
Kaplowitz Marla director 825 BERKSHIRE BLVD. WYOMISSING PA 19610
Labombard Christine officer: SVP and CAO 825 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD WYOMISSING PA 19610
Naples Ronald J director 96 S. GEORGE STREET SUITE 500 YORK PA 17401
Scaccetti Jane director 3111 W ALLEGHENY AVE PHILADELPHIA PA 19132
Rogers Christopher Byron officer: EVP and Chief Strategy Officer 825 BERKSHIRE BLVD. WYOMISSING PA 19610
Ko Harper H. officer: EVP, CLO and Sec. 7250 S. TENAYA WAY SUITE 100 LAS VEGAS NV 89113
Williams David Edward officer: EVP and CFO 825 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD WYOMISSING PA 19610
Reibstein Saul officer: EVP-Finance, CFO & Treasurer C/O VISHAY PRECISION GROUP, INC. 3 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 150 MALVERN PA 19355
Sottosanti Carl officer: SVP,Gen Counsel & Secretary 825 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD SUITE 200 WYOMISSING PA 19610
Snowden Jay A officer: EVP-Chief Operating Officer 825 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD SUITE 200 WYOMISSING PA 19610
Fair William J officer: EVP - Chief Dev Officer 825 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD SUITE 200 WYOMISSING PA 19610
Burke Desiree A. officer: V. P. and Chief Accounting Off 845 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD SUITE 200 WYOMISSING PA 19610

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