QNCX (Quince Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Quince Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Quince Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Quince Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Quince Therapeutics Inc (NAS:QNCX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

611 Gateway Boulevard, Suite 273, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.quincetx.com

Quince Therapeutics Inc is preclinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on advancing precision therapeutics for debilitating and rare diseases. The company discovered a broad bone-targeting drug platform designed to precisely deliver small molecules, peptides, or large molecules directly to the site of bone fracture and disease to promote rapid healing with fewer off-target safety concerns compared to non-targeted therapeutics. Company pipeline includes Ataxia-Telangiectasia(EryDex), Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy, New Indications and Program Expansion Potential.

Executives

Dirk Thye	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	6310 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Brendan Hannah	officer: Chief Business Officer	269 EAST GRAND AVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Charles S. Ryan	officer: President	C/O APPLIED DNA SCIENCES, INC., 50 HEALTH SCIENCES DRIVE, STONY BROOK NY 11790
David Lamond	director	C/O CORTEXYME, INC., 269 EAST GRAND AVE., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Guenter Janhofer	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	601 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 1250, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Luca Benatti	director	C/O INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 450 WEST 15TH STREET, SUITE 505, NEW YORK NY 10011
Margaret Mcloughlin	director	C/O CORTEXYME, INC., 269 EAST GRAND AVE., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Ted Monohon	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O FANTEX, INC., 330 TOWNSEND ST., SUITE 234, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
June Bray	director	C/O BIOXCEL THERAPEUTICS, INC., 555 LONG WHARF DRIVE, NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Caryn Gordon Mcdowell	officer: Chief Legal & Adm. Officer	280 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Philip S Low	director	3000 KENT AVE STE A1-100, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906
Karen L. Smith	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 5TH FL, WATERLOO EXCHANGE, WATERLOO RD, DUBLIN L2 4 L2
Marwan Sabbagh	director	C/O CORTEXYME, INC., 269 EAST GRAND AVE., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Stephen S. Dominy	director, officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O CORTEXYME, INC., 269 EAST GRAND AVE., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Christopher P. Lowe	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2511 N LOOP 1604,, SUITE 204, SAN ANTONIO TX 78258