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Qorvo Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Qorvo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Qorvo Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Qorvo's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Qorvo Business Description

Qorvo logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
7628 Thorndike Road, Greensboro, NC, USA, 27409-9421
Qorvo represents the combined entity of RF Micro Devices and TriQuint Semiconductor, which merged with one another in January 2015. The company specializes in radio frequency filters, power amplifiers, and front-end modules used in many of the world's most advanced smartphones. Qorvo also has a suite of products sold into a variety of nonsmartphone end markets, such as wireless base stations, cable TV and networking equipment, and infrastructure and military applications.
Executives
Brown Grant officer: VP of Treasury & Interim CFO 7628 THORNDIKE ROAD GREENSBORO NC 27409
Chesley Philip officer: Pres. Infra & Defense 7628 THORNDIKE ROAD GREENSBORO NC 27409
Bruner Judy director C/O SANDISK CORPORATION 601 MCCARTHY BLVD. MILPITAS CA 95035
Fego Paul J officer: VP, Global Operations 15 SECOR ROAD PO BOX 5226 BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Spradley Susan Louise director C/O NORTEL NETWORKS 8200 DIXIE ROAD STE 100 BRAMPTON ONTARIO A6 L6T 5PT
Murphy Mark J. officer: Chief Financial Officer DELPHI AUTOMOTIVE PLC 5725 DELPHI DRIVE TROY MI 48098
Harrison Gina officer: VP and Corporate Controller 7628 THORNDIKE ROAD GREENSBORO NC 27409
Quinsey Ralph director C/O TRIQUINT SEMICONDUCTOR INC 2300 NE BROOKWOOD PKWY HILLSBORO OR 97124
Laber Michael J. officer: VP and Corporate Controller 2300 NE BROOKWOOD PARKWAY HILLSBORO OR 97124
Buhaly Steven J officer: CFO and Secretary 1195 NW LOMPTON DRIVE BEAVESTON OR 97006
Dileo Daniel A director C/O RF MICRO DEVICES 7628 THORNDIKE ROAD GREENSBORO NC 27409
Gibson C Scott director PMB 316, PO BOX 30,000 JACKSON WY 83002
Nelson Roderick director 2300 NE BROOKWOOD PARKWAY HILLSBORO OR 97124
Ho David H Y director 5500 WAYZATA BOULEVARD SUITE 600 GOLDEN VALLEY MN 55416
Wilkinson Walter H director C/O RF MICRO DEVICES, INC. 7628 THORNDIKE ROAD GREENSBORO NC 27409

Qorvo Headlines

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