Randolph Bancorp (Randolph Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Randolph Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Randolph Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Randolph Bancorp (Randolph Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Randolph Bancorp Inc (NAS:RNDB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2 Batterymarch Park, Suite 301, Quincy, MA, USA, 02169

Website

https://www.randolphbancorp.com

Randolph Bancorp Inc is a bank holding company of Envision Bank. The company is engaged in providing financial services to individuals, families, and small to mid-size businesses. The business of the company includes accepting deposits from the public and investing those deposits, commercial real estate loans, construction loans, investment securities, and consumer loans. The firm also offers deposit accounts, certificates of deposit, and money market accounts. The company has two reporting segments; Envision Bank, which is the key revenue generating segment; and Envision Mortgage. Envision Mortgage consists primarily of gains on loan origination and sales activities, loan servicing income and interest income on loans held for sale and residential construction loans.

Executives

Martin S. Friedman	10 percent owner	7901 JONES BRANCH DR. SUITE 210, MCLEAN VA 22102
Richard C. Pierce	director	C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC., 10 CABOT PLACE, STOUGHTON MA 02072
William M Parent	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O GRAIL INVESTMENT CORP., 767 THIRD AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Evelyn Kaupp	director	C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC., 10 CABOT PLACE, STOUGHTON MA 02072
Ronald K Perry	director	320 NORWOOD PARK SOUTH, NORWOOD MA 02062
Pamela C Scott	director	151 BRADLEE AVENUE, SWAMPSCOTT MA 01907
Ryan J. Kirwin	officer: See Remarks	C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC., 10 CABOT PLACE, STOUGHTON MA 02072
Louis J. Trubiano	director	C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC., 10 CABOT PLACE, STOUGHTON MA 02072
Thomas A. Foresta	officer: See Remarks	C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC., 10 CABOT PLACE, STOUGHTON MA 02072
Quigley Kenneth K Jr	director
Olson Richard D. Jr.	officer: See Remarks	C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC., 10 CABOT PLACE, STOUGHTON MA 02072
Lauren Messmore	officer: EVP & CFO	320 NORWOOD PARK SOUTH, NORWOOD MA 02062
Janis E. Wentzell	director	C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC., 10 CABOT PLACE, STOUGHTON MA 02072
James G. Welch	director	C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC., 10 CABOT PLACE, STOUGHTON MA 02072
Nancy J. Curry	officer: SVP/Commercial Lending	C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC., 10 CABOT PLACE, STOUGHTON MA 02072