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VistaGen Therapeutics Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


VistaGen Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

VistaGen Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of VistaGen Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


VistaGen Therapeutics Business Description

VistaGen Therapeutics logo
Industry
Healthcare » Biotechnology NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
343 Allerton Avenue, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080
VistaGen Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology firm. The company is in its clinical stage and engaged in developing and commercializing product candidates for patients with diseases and disorders involving the central nervous system. Its lead product candidate, AV-101, is an orally available prodrug candidate in Phase II development, initially for the adjunctive treatment of a major depressive disorder in patients with an inadequate response to standard antidepressants. The PH94B is a novel neuroactive nasal spray with therapeutic potential in a wide range of indications involving anxiety or phobia; PH10 is an odorless, fast-acting synthetic neurosteroid for neuropsychiatric indications involving depression.
Executives
Saxe Jon S director FIRST HORIZON PHARMACEUTICAL CORP 660 HEMBREE PKWY STE 106 ROSWELL GA 30076
Dotson Jerrold Duane officer: VP, CFO AND SECRETARY 5 CENTERPOINTE DRIVE SUITE 400 LAKE OSWEGO OR 97035
Singh Shawn director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER C/O VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC. 343 ALLERTON AVENUE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Snodgrass H. Ralph director, officer: PRES./CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER 384 OYSTER POINT BLVD. SUITE 8 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Smith Mark Alan officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER 343 ALLERTON AVENUE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Mcpartland Mark A. officer: VP CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT C/O VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC. 343 ALLERTON AVENUE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Gin Jerry B director 343 ALLERTON AVE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Underdown Brian J. director C/O LUMIRA CAPITAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT 141 ADELAIDE ST. WEST, SUITE 770 TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA M5H 3L5 A6 00000
Cunningham Ann Michelle director 255 N CALDWELL CIRCLE DOWNINGTOWN PA 19335
Rice A. Franklin officer: VP CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT 384 OYSTER POINT BLVD. SUITE 8 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Bonfiglio Gregory A. director 384 OYSTER POINT BOULEVARD, NO. 8 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Platinum Long Term Growth Vii, Llc 10 percent owner 152 WEST 57TH STREET 4TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10019
Cato Holding Co 10 percent owner 4364 SOUTH ALSTON AVENUE DURHAM NC 27713
Cato Allen Easley 10 percent owner 4364 SOUTH ALSTON AVENUE DURHAM NC 27713
Jones Stephanie director, 10 percent owner, officer: PRESIDENT 13834 W. HOYT ROAD RATHDRUM ID 83858

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