Northeast Bank (Northeast Bank) Predictability Rank

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What is Northeast Bank Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Northeast Bank Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Northeast Bank (Northeast Bank) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Northeast Bank (NAS:NBN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

73K:Germany

Address

27 Pearl Street, Portland, ME, USA, 04101

Website

https://www.northeastbank.com

Northeast Bank provides banking and financial services to individual and corporate customers in the US. The firm conducts its loan-related activities through three primary channels: the Community Banking Division, the Loan Acquisition and Servicing Group, and the Small Business Administration Division. Its loan portfolio comprises residential mortgage loans; multi-family and other commercial real estate loans; commercial and industrial loans, consumer loans and small business administration loans. The firm also provides telephone banking, online banking, mobile banking, and remote deposit capture services. The revenue of the company is derived primarily from interest and dividends from the bank.

Executives

Richard Wayne	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CAPITAL CROSSING PREFERRED CORP, 101 SUMMER ST, BOSTON MA 02110
Jean-pierre Lapointe	officer: CFO / TREASURER	C/O NORTHEAST BANCORP, 500 CANAL STREET, LEWISTON ME 04240
Julie Jenkins	officer: SVP/Director of Operations	C/O NORTHEAST BANCORP, 500 CANAL STREET, LEWISTON ME 04240
David Allen Tanner	director	C/O ARLON GROUP LLC, 277 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10172
Patrick D Dignan	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O NORTHEAST BANCORP, 500 CANAL STREET, LEWISTON ME 04240
Peter Walter Mcclean	director	C/O PNMAC CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 27001 AGOURA ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91301
Magnolia Capital Fund, Lp	10 percent owner	1601 DODGE STREET, SUITE 3300, OMAHA NE 68102
Magnolia Group, Llc	10 percent owner	1601 DODGE STREET, SUITE 3300, OMAHA NE 68102
Adam K Peterson	10 percent owner	1601 DODGE STREET, SUITE 3300, OMAHA NE 68102
Lindsay Wiedemann	officer: Corporate Controller	C/O NORTHEAST BANCORP, 500 CANAL STREET, LEWISTON ME 04240
Claire S Bean	officer: CFO and COO	C/O BENJAMIN FRANKLIN BANK, 58 MAIN STREET, P.O. BOX 309, FRANKLIN MA 02038-0309
Brian Pinheiro	officer: Chief Risk Officer	NORTHEAST BANCORP, 500 CANAL STREET, LEWISTON ME 04240-6594
Brian W. Shaughnessy	officer: Chief Financial Officer	NORTHEAST BANCORP, 500 CANAL STREET, LEWISTON ME 04240-6594
John C Orestis	director	NORTHEAST BANK, 500 CANAL STREET, LEWISTON ME 04240
William F. Difulvio	officer: Chief Risk Officer	NORTHEAST BANCORP, 500 CANAL STREET, LEWISTON ME 04240