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Bunge Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Competitive Comparison

For the Farm Products subindustry, Bunge's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Bunge Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Bunge's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Bunge's Predictability Rank falls into.

Bunge Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Bunge Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Bunge's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Bunge Business Description

Bunge logo
1391 Timberlake Manor Parkway, St. Louis, MO, USA, 63017
Founded in 1818, Bunge is a global agribusiness and food company with operations along the farm-to-consumer food chain. The agribusiness segment generates roughly two thirds of profits and includes the largest oilseed processing capacity globally. The company is a leading oilseed processor and seller of packaged vegetable oils and other food and ingredients products.
Wagner Robert officer: Chief Risk Officer 1391 TIMBERLAKE MANOR PARKWAY CHESTERFIELD MT 63017
Mauger Pierre officer: Chief Transformation Officer C/O BUNGE LIMITED, 50 MAIN STREET 6TH FLOOR WHITE PLAINS NY 10606
Winship Henry Ward Iv director PO BOX 8614 RANCHO SANTA FE CA 92067
Padilla Raul officer: President, Global Operations C/O BUNGE LTD 50 MAIN STREET WHITE PLAINS NY 10606
Borg Deborah officer: EVP & Chief HR, Comms Officer C/O BUNGE LIMITED, 50 MAIN STREET 8TH FLOOR WHITE PLAINS NY 10606
Dimopoulos Christos officer: Pres., Global Supply Chains C/O BUNGE LIMITED 50 MAIN STREET, 6TH FLOOR WHITE PLAINS NY 10606
Neppl John W officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer 1811 AKSARBEN DRIVE OMAHA NE 68106
Zachman Brian officer: President Global Risk Mgmnt C/O BUNGE LIMITED 50 MAIN STREET, 6TH FLOOR WHITE PLAINS NY 10606
Buettner Aaron officer: SVP, Bunge Loders Croklaan C/O BUNGE LIMITED 50 MAIN STREET, 6TH FLOOR WHITE PLAINS NY 10606
Podwika Joseph officer: EVP and Chief Legal Officer C/O BUNGE LIMITED 50 MAIN STREET, 6TH FLOOR WHITE PLAINS NY 10606
Simmons Jerry Matthews Jr officer: Controller, Principal Actg Off TWO N. NINTH STREET ALLENTOWN PA 18101
Bair Sheila Colleen director 6903 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 1500 BETHESDA MD 20817
Fribourg Paul J director 667 MADISON AVE NEW YORK NY 10021

Bunge Headlines

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