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Blackstone Senior Floating Rate Term Fund Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Asset Management subindustry, Blackstone Senior Floating Rate Term Fund's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Blackstone Senior Floating Rate Term Fund Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Asset Management industry and Financial Services sector, Blackstone Senior Floating Rate Term Fund's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Blackstone Senior Floating Rate Term Fund's Predictability Rank falls into.



Blackstone Senior Floating Rate Term Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Blackstone Senior Floating Rate Term Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Blackstone Senior Floating Rate Term Fund's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Blackstone Senior Floating Rate Term Fund Business Description

Blackstone Senior Floating Rate Term Fund logo
Industry
Financial Services » Asset Management NAICS : 523991 SIC : 6733
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
345 Park Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10154
Blackstone Senior Floating Rate Term Fund is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its primary investment objective is to seek high current income, with a secondary objective to seek preservation of capital, consistent with its primary goal of high current income. The fund invests at least 80% of its Managed Assets in senior, secured floating rate loans. It also invests in second-lien loans and high yield bonds and employs financial leverage, which may increase the risk to the Fund.
Executives
Post Robert other: Portfolio Manager C/O GSO/BLACKSTONE DEBT FUNDS MGMT, LLC 345 PARK AVE 31ST FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10154
Busch Robert W officer: CFO & Treasurer 345 PARK AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10154
Zable Robert officer: Executive Vice President, other: Asst. Secretary & PM 1290 BROADWAY SUITE 1100 DENVER CO 80203
Mckemie Gordon other: Portfolio Manager C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP 345 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10154
Smith Daniel Harlan Jr. officer: CEO, President, other: Trustee, Chairman 1290 BROADWAY SUITE 1100 DENVER CO 80203
Lee-silvestri Dohyun (doris) officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP 345 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10154
Lee Jane officer: Public Relations Officer 1290 BROADWAY SUITE 1100 CO 80203
Beeney Marisa Janel officer: CCO, Chief Legal Counsel, Sec. 1290 BROADWAY, SUITE 1100 DENVER CO 80203
Schpero Gary S other: Trustee 1290 BROADWAY, SUITE 1100 DENVER CO 80203
Shaiman Lee Michael officer: Exec. VP, Assistant Secretary 1290 BROADWAY SUITE 1100 DENVER CO 80203
Metropolitan Life Insurance Co/ny 10 percent owner 200 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10166
Holland Michael F other: Trustee PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: HOLLAND MICHAEL F a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Rosenberg Eric officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP 280 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10017
Dalelio Edward H other: Trustee 1000 BOARDWALK AT VIRGINIA AVENUE ATLANTIC CITY NJ 08401
Paolillo Douglas other: Mng. Dir.of Investment Advisor C/O GSO BLACKSTONE DEBT FUNDS MGMT LLC 280 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10017
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