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Cardinal Health Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Medical Distribution subindustry, Cardinal Health's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Cardinal Health Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Medical Distribution industry and Healthcare sector, Cardinal Health's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Cardinal Health's Predictability Rank falls into.



Cardinal Health Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cardinal Health Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cardinal Health's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Cardinal Health Business Description

Cardinal Health logo
Industry
Healthcare » Medical Distribution NAICS : 424210 SIC : 5122
Address
7000 Cardinal Place, Dublin, OH, USA, 43017
Cardinal Health is the third- largest global logistics provider engaged in wholesale pharmaceutical and medical products. Similar to its closest two peers, the company has evolved over time and has become entrenched in the sourcing and distribution of brand-name and generic pharmaceuticals and related services to hospitals, healthcare systems, pharmacies, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories, and physician offices. Through acquisitions, Cardinal Health has the ability to manufacture commodity products and certain medical devices.
Executives
Losh J Michael director H.B. FULLER COMPANY P.O. BOX 64683 ST. PAUL MN 55164-0683
Scarborough Dean A director 150 N. ORANGE GROVE BLVD PASADENA CA 91103
Snow Ola M officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Edison Sheri H. director 1069 STATE ROUTE 46 EAST BATESVILLE IN 47006
English Patricia M officer: Chief Accounting Officer 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Mason Stephen M officer: CEO, Medical Segment 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Mayer Jessica L officer: Chief Legal/Compliance Officer 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Rice Brian S officer: Chief Information Officer 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Holcomb Michele officer: EVP - Strategy & Corp. Dev. 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Hollar Jason M. officer: Chief Financial Officer 3333 BEVERLY ROAD HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179
Kaufmann Michael C director, officer: CEO 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Crawford Victor L. officer: CEO, Pharmaceutical Segment C/O THE PEPSI BOTTLING GROUP, INC. ONE PEPSI WAY SOMERS NY 10589
Laws Stuart G officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer CARDINAL HEALTH, INC. 7000 CARDINAL PLACE DUBLIN OH 43017
Evans David C director C/O THE SCOTTS MIRACLE-GRO COMPANY 14111 SCOTTSLAWN ROAD MARYSVILLE OH 43041
Darden Calvin director 11235 STROUP ROAD ROSWELL GA 30075

Cardinal Health Headlines

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