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Caterpillar Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Caterpillar Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Caterpillar Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Caterpillar's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Caterpillar Business Description

Caterpillar logo
Address
510 Lake Cook Road, Suite 100, Deerfield, IL, USA, 60015
Caterpillar is an iconic manufacturer of heavy equipment, power solutions, and locomotives. It is currently the world's largest manufacturer of heavy equipment with over 13% market share in 2021. The company is divided into four reportable segments: construction industries, resource industries, energy and transportation, and Caterpillar Financial Services. Its products are available through a dealer network that covers the globe with over 2,000 branches maintained by 168 dealers. Caterpillar Financial Services provides retail financing for machinery and engines to its customers, in addition to wholesale financing for dealers, which increases the likelihood of Caterpillar product sales.
Executives
Schaupp William E officer: Chief Accounting Officer PPG INDUSTRIES, INC. ONE PPG PLACE PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Maclennan David director 14701 CHARLSON ROAD EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Johnson Gerald director 300 RENAISSANCE CENTER M/C: 482-C23-A68 DETROIT MI 48265
Fassino Anthony D. officer: Group President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Marvel Gary Michael officer: Chief Accounting Officer 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Ainsworth William P officer: Group President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD X1 60015
Bonfield Andrew R J officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO 345 PARK AVE NEW YORK NY 10164
Younessi Ramin officer: Group President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Creed Joseph E officer: Interim CFO 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Ayotte Kelly director C/O NEWS CORPORATION 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10036
Johnson Cheryl H officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 40 WESTMINSTER STREET PROVIDENCE RI 02903
Wilkins Rayford Jr director 208 S. AKARD ST. -- DALLAS TX 75202
Long Suzette M officer: Int. Executive Vice President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFILED IL 60015
De Lange Bob officer: Group President 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Johnson Denise C officer: Group President C/O CATERPILLAR, INCORPORATED 901 WEST WASHINGTON, CV41110 EAST PEORIA IL 61630

Caterpillar Headlines

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