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China Green Agriculture Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Agricultural Inputs subindustry, China Green Agriculture's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

China Green Agriculture Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Agriculture industry and Basic Materials sector, China Green Agriculture's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where China Green Agriculture's Predictability Rank falls into.



China Green Agriculture Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

China Green Agriculture Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of China Green Agriculture's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


China Green Agriculture Business Description

China Green Agriculture logo
Industry
Basic Materials » Agriculture NAICS : 325320 SIC : 2879
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
South Taibai Road, 3rd Floor, Borough A, Block A. No. 181, Shaanxi Province, Xi’an, CHN, 710065
China Green Agriculture Inc is engaged in the business of fertilizer and agricultural products. It involves the research, development, production, distribution, and sale of humic acid-based compound fertilizer, blended fertilizer, organic compound fertilizer, slow-release fertilizers, concentrated water-soluble fertilizers, and mixed organic-inorganic compound fertilizer and the development, production, and distribution of agricultural products, such as top-grade fruits, vegetables, flowers and colored seedlings in China. The company operates in four segments: Fertilizer products (Jinong), Fertilizer products (Gufeng), agricultural products (Yuxing), and Sales VIEs(variable interest entities). All of its operations are conducted in China.
Executives
Shi Yiru director 1217 S CATALINA AVENUE REDONDO BEACH CA 90277
Shen Jianlei director 3RD FLOOR, BOROUGH A, BLOCK A. NO. 181 SOUTH TAIBAI ROAD XI?AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 PRC 710065
Fan Ale director 3RD FLOOR, BOROUGH A, BLOCK A. NO. 181 SOUTH TAIBAI ROAD XI?AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 PRC 710065
Zhang Yizhao director 45 OLD MILLSTONE DRIVE, NIT 6 EAST WINDSOR NJ 08520
Fields Robert B director 215 EAST 68TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10021
Raeburn Barry L director C/O FUSHI INTERNATIONAL INC. 1 SHUANGQIANG ROAD, JINZHOU DALIAN F4 116100
To Yinshing David 10 percent owner 45 OLD MILLSTONE DR, UNIT 6 EAST WINDSOR NJ 08520
Schwartz Sanford other: Former Officer & 10% Owner 5353 MANHATTAN CIRCLE STE 101 BOULDER CO 80303
Friess Michael other: Former Officer & 10% Owner 5353 MANHATTAN CIRCLE STE 101 BOULDER CO 80303
Venette John H director, officer: CFO & Treasurer 5353 MANHATTAN CIRCLE SUITE 101 BOULDER CO 80303
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