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DuPont de Nemours Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DuPont de Nemours Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

DuPont de Nemours Predictability Rank Related Terms

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DuPont de Nemours Business Description

DuPont de Nemours logo
974 Centre Road, Building 730, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19805
DuPont is a diversified global specialty chemicals company created in 2019 as a result of the DowDuPont merger and subsequent separations. Its portfolio includes specialty chemicals and downstream products that serve the electronics and communication, automotive, construction, safety and protection, and water management industries. DuPont benefits from the ability to produce patented specialty chemicals that command pricing power. Noteworthy products include Kevlar, Tyvek, and Nomex, which tend to have a wide range of applications across multiple industries.
Johnson Kristina M director 19 HEATH PL DURHAM NC 27705
Lowery Frederick M. director 974 CENTRE ROAD CRP 730 WILMINGTON DE 19805
Mulligan Deanna director 7 HANOVER SQUARE NEW YORK NY 10004
Ratnakar Raj officer: SVP and Chief Strategy Officer C/O FORTIVE CORPORATION 6920 SEAWAY BOULEVARD EVERETT WA 98203
Weaver Leland officer: President, Water & Protection 974 CENTRE ROAD CRP 730, 5216 WILMINGTON DE 19805
Stone Randy Lee officer: President, Mobility & Material 974 CENTRE ROAD CRP 730 WILMINGTON DE 19805
Hoover Erik T. officer: SVP & General Counsel 974 CENTRE ROAD CRP 730 WILMINGTON DE 19805
Goss Michael G. officer: Controller 974 CENTRE ROAD CRP 730 WILMINGTON DE 19805
Larrabee Steven P. officer: SVP & CIO 974 CENTRE ROAD CRP 730 WILMINGTON DE 19805
Kemp Jon D. officer: President, E&I 974 CENTRE ROAD CRP 730 WILMINGTON DE 19805
Koch Lori officer: EVP & CFO 974 CENTRE ROAD CRP 730 WILMINGTON DE 19805
Raia Christopher officer: SVP & CHRO 974 CENTRE ROAD CRP 730 WILMINGTON DE 19805
Brady Amy G. director 127 PUBLIC SQUARE CLEVELAND OH 44114
Lee Rose officer: President, S&C C/O CROWN HOLDINGS, INC. 770 TOWNSHIP LINE ROAD YARDLEY PA 19067

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