>
Switch to:

Western Asset Global High Fd Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial
Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Western Asset Global High Fd Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Western Asset Global High Fd Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Western Asset Global High Fd's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Western Asset Global High Fd Business Description

Western Asset Global High Fd logo
Industry
Financial Services » Asset Management NAICS : 523930 SIC : 6282
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
620 Eighth Avenue, 49th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10018
Western Asset Global High Inc Fd Inc is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is high current income and total return by investing in a global portfolio of securities. The fund invests in various sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Healthcare, Industrials, materials, and others.
Executives
Fergerson Laura F other: Manager/Investment Manager 3310 QUALITY DRIVE 2ND FLOOR RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Eakes Brian other: Manager/Investment Manager 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE BALTIMORE MD 21202
Hoyt George P. officer: Secretary and Ch Lgl Officer C/O FRANKLIN TEMPLETON 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE STAMFORD CT 06902
Nicholls Matthew other: Director of Sub-Adviser ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY SAN MATEO CA 94403
Bolt Jennifer J other: Director of Sub-Adviser C/O FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC. ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY SAN MATEO CA 94403-1906
Plafker Jed A. other: Director of Sub-Adviser ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY SAN MATEO CA 94403
Saba Capital Management, L.p. 10 percent owner 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE 58TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10174
Weinstein Boaz 10 percent owner 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE 58TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10174
Jensen Fred Steven officer: Chief Compliance Officer LEGG MASON 620 EIGHTH AVENUE, 49TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10018
Cronin Daniel P director 235 EAST 42ND ST NEW YORK NY 10017
Hutchinson William R director 535 N MICHIGAN STE 1012 CHICAGO IL 60611
Berarducci Christopher officer: Treas/Principal Finan Officer LEGG MASON 620 EIGHTH AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10018
Kumar Nisha director 1735 MARKET STREET 32ND FLOOR PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Berg Jennifer S officer: Treasurer 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE 7TH FLOOR BALTIMORE MD 21202
Kuehl Todd F officer: Chief Compliance Officer 1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE ATLANTA 2Q 30309

Western Asset Global High Fd Headlines

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)