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Helmerich & Payne Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Helmerich & Payne Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Helmerich & Payne Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Helmerich & Payne Business Description

Helmerich & Payne logo
Energy » Oil & Gas NAICS : 213111 SIC : 1381
Traded in Other Exchanges
1437 South Boulder Avenue, Suite 1400, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74119
Helmerich & Payne has the largest fleet of U.S. land drilling rigs. The company's FlexRig line is the leading choice to drill horizontal wells for production of U.S. tight oil and gas. H&P is present in nearly every major U.S. shale play and also has a small presence internationally.
Adams Raymond John Iii officer: VP Digital Ops Marketing Sales 1437 S. BOULDER AVE. SUITE 1400 TULSA OK 74119
Smith Mark W. officer: Senior VP and CFO 15835 PARK TEN PLACE DRIVE HOUSTON TX 77084
Mas Jose Ramon director 800 DOUGLAS ROAD, 12TH FLOOR CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Bellinger Delaney Murchison director 524 E. 24TH STREET HOUSTON TX 77008
Cramton Kevin G. director 502 SAINT DAVIDS AVENUE WAYNE PA 19087
Petrie Thomas A. director 1437 S. BOULDER AVE., SUITE 1400 TULSA OK 74119
Helmerich Hans director C/O CIIRMAREX ENERGY CO 707 17TH ST. #3300 DENVER CO 80202-3404
Zeglis John D director 7277 164TH AVE NE BLDG1 REDMOND WA 98052
Foutch Randy A director 15 W. SIXTH STREET SUITE, 1800 TULSA OK 74119
Robillard Donald F Jr director 1437 S. BOULDER AVE. TULSA OK 74119
Vandeweghe Mary M director 1601 W. DIEHL ROAD NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Benson Todd Willard officer: President of H&P Technologies 1437 S. BOULDER AVENUE SUITE 1400 TULSA OK 74119
Bell John R. officer: VP, Drilling Subsidiary 1437 S. BOULDER AVE. TULSA OK 74119
Lennox Michael officer: VP, Drilling Subsidiary 1437 S. BOULDER AVE., SUITE 140 TULSA OK 74119

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