HP (Helmerich & Payne) Predictability Rank

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What is Helmerich & Payne Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Helmerich & Payne Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Helmerich & Payne Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Helmerich & Payne Inc (NYSE:HP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0J4G:UK HPC:Germany HPC:Germany

Address

222 North Detroit Avenue, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74120

Website

https://www.helmerichpayne.com

Helmerich & Payne Inc provides performance-driven drilling solutions and technologies that are intended to make hydrocarbon recovery safer and more economical for oil and gas exploration and production companies. The Company focus on the drilling segment of the oil and gas production value chain. Company operates in North America, Gulf of Mexico, and other international places such as Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Colombia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Also own and operates a limited number of commercial real estate properties located in Tulsa, Oklahoma. It's real estate investments include a shopping center and of undeveloped real estate projects.

Executives

Randy A Foutch	director	15 W. SIXTH STREET, SUITE, 1800, TULSA OK 74119
Belgacem Chariag	director	TECHNO PARK, SHEIKH ZAYED ROAD, DUBAI C0 00000
John W Lindsay	director, officer: President and CEO	1437 S. BOULDER AVE., SUITE 1400, TULSA OK 74119
Cara M. Hair	officer: SVP, Corp. Services & CLO	1437 S. BOULDER AVE., SUITE 1400, TULSA OK 74119
Mark W. Smith	officer: Senior VP and CFO	15835 PARK TEN PLACE DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77084
Adams Raymond John Iii	officer: SVP Sales, Marketing & Digital	1437 S. BOULDER AVE., SUITE 1400, TULSA OK 74119
Hans Helmerich	director	C/O CIIRMAREX ENERGY CO, 707 17TH ST. #3300, DENVER CO 80202-3404
Elizabeth R Killinger	director	NRG ENERGY, INC., 211 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
John R. Bell	officer: SVP, Int'l & Offshore Ops, sub	1437 S. BOULDER AVE., SUITE 1400, TULSA OK 74119
Sara Marie Momper	officer: VP, CAO	1437 S. BOULDER AVE., SUITE 1400, TULSA OK 74119
Michael Lennox	officer: SVP, US Land Ops, drilling sub	1437 S. BOULDER AVE., SUITE 140, TULSA OK 74119
Todd Willard Benson	officer: President of H&P Technologies	1437 S. BOULDER AVENUE, SUITE 1400, TULSA OK 74119
Mary M Vandeweghe	director	1601 W. DIEHL ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Kevin G. Cramton	director	502 SAINT DAVIDS AVENUE, WAYNE PA 19087
Delaney Murchison Bellinger	director	524 E. 24TH STREET, HOUSTON TX 77008