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IDEX Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


IDEX Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

IDEX Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of IDEX's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


IDEX Business Description

IDEX logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3100 Sanders Road, Suite 301, Northbrook, IL, USA, 60062
Idex manufactures pumps, flow meters, valves, and fluidic systems for customers in a variety of end markets, including industrial, fire & safety, life science, and water. The firm's business is organized into three segments: fluid & metering technologies, health & science technologies, and fire & safety and diversified products. Based in Lake Forest, Illinois, Idex has manufacturing operations in over 20 countries and has over 7,000 employees. The company generated $2.8 billion in revenue and $661 million in adjusted operating income in 2021.
Executives
Watts Stanfield Paris director 3100 SANDERS ROAD SUITE 301 NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Gunter Lakecia N director 3100 SANDER ROAD SUITE 301 NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Satterthwaite Livingston director 1925 WEST FIELD COURT SUITE 200 LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Parry David C director 155 HARLEM AVE. GLENVIEW IL 60025
Beck Mark A director 2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW SUITE 800W WASHINGTON DC 20037
Christenson Carl R director C/O ALTRA INDUSTRIAL MOTION INC. 300 GRANITE STREET BRAINTREE MA 02184
Helmkamp Katrina L director 1925 WEST FIELD COURT SUITE 200 LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Cook William M director 1925 WEST FIELD COURT SUITE 200 LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Buthman Mark A director P O BOX 619100 DALLAS TX 752619100
Unnikrishnan Roopa officer: SVP, Strategy&Corp Development 3100 SANDERS ROAD SUITE 301 NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Anderson Lisa M officer: SVP, General Counsel &Corp Sec 3100 SANDERS ROAD SUITE 301 NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Lausas Allison S officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer C/O SUNCOKE ENERGY, INC. 1011 WARRENVILLE ROAD, SUITE 600 LISLE IL 60532
Flores Melissa S officer: SVP-Chief HR Officer 3100 SANDER ROAD SUITE 301 NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Warner Cynthia J director 1925 WEST FIELD COURT SUITE 200 LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Mrozek Ernest J director SERVICE MASTER 2300 WARRENVILLE ROAD DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515

IDEX Headlines

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