>
Switch to:

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1994. Start your Free Trial
3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Trucking subindustry, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Predictability Rank falls into.



Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Business Description

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings logo
Industry
Industrials » Transportation NAICS : 484121 SIC : 4213
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
20002 North 19th Avenue, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85027
Knight-Swift Transportation is by far the largest asset-based full-truckload carrier in the United States. About 80% of revenue derives from asset-based truckload shipping operations (including for-hire dry van, refrigerated, and dedicated contract). The remainder stems from truck brokerage and other asset-light logistics services (8%), as well as intermodal (8%), which uses the Class-I railroads for the underlying movement of the firm's shipping containers and also offers drayage services.
Executives
Moyes Vickie 10 percent owner SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Moyes Jerry 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% group SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Moyes Jerry & Vickie Family Trust 10 percent owner SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Garnreiter Michael director 6735 E. GREENWAY PARKWAY UNIT #2049 SCOTTSDALE AZ 85254
Nester Lyndee Moyes other: Member of 10% owner group PO BOX 1397 TOLLESON AZ 85353
Moyes Michael other: Member of 10% owner group SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Breen Shannon officer: Sr. VP Logistics/Intermodal 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85027
Flanagan Cary M officer: SVP and CAO SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85043
Harrington Timothy Sean officer: Exec Vice Pres Sales 2200 NORTH 75TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85027
Knight Gary J director, officer: Vice Chairman PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: KNIGHT GARY J a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Knight Kevin P director, officer: Executive Chairman 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043
Liu Michael K officer: Exec. VP of Ops, Knight Trans 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043
Jackson David A director, officer: President and CEO PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: JACKSON DAVID A a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Yu Wayne officer: CAO of Knight Trans. Inc. 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043
Carlson Todd F. officer: General Counsel and Secretary 5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD PHOENIX AZ 85043

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Headlines

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)