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Lennar Predictability Rank


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3.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Lennar Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Lennar Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Lennar's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Lennar Business Description

Lennar logo
Industry
Address
700 Northwest 107th Avenue, Miami, FL, USA, 33172
After merging with CalAtlantic in February 2018, Lennar has become the largest public homebuilder (by revenue) in the United States. The company's homebuilding operations target first-time, move-up, and active adult homebuyers mainly under the Lennar brand name. Lennar's financial-services segment provides mortgage financing and related services to its homebuyers. Miami-based Lennar is also involved in multifamily construction and has invested in numerous housing-related technology startups.
Executives
Bessette Diane J officer: VP/CFO/Treasurer LENNAR CORPORATION 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR MIAMI FL 33172
Collins David M officer: Controller LENNAR CORPORATION 700 NW 107 AVENUE STE 400 MIAMI FL 33172
Jaffe Jonathan M director, officer: President LENNAR CORPORATION 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR MIAMI FL 33172
Mccall Jeffrey Joseph officer: Executive Vice President 26 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE IRVINE CA 92618
Stowell Scott D director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: STOWELL SCOTT D a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Gerard Steven L director P.O. BOX 554 MILWAUKEE WI 53201-0554
Bolotin Irving director LENNAR CORPORATION 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR MIAMI FL 33172
Sustana Mark officer: VP/General Counsel/Secretary LENNAR CORPORATION 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR MIAMI FL 33172
Beckwitt Richard director, officer: Chief Executive Officer LENNAR CORPORATION 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR MIAMI FL 33172
Olivera Armando J director C/O FLUOR CORPORATION 6700 LAS COLINAS BLVD IRVING TX 75039
Gilliam Theron I director GMS INC. 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800 TUCKER 2Q 30084
Mcclure Teri P director 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Sonnenfeld Jeffrey director 14 WALL ST 13TH FL NEW YORK NY 10005
Hudson Sherrill W director 201 SOUTH BISCAYNE BOULEVARD 34TH FLOOR, MIAMI CENTER MIAMI FL 33131
Lapidus Sidney director 466 LEXINGTON AVENUE FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10017

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