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Laboratory of America Holdings Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Laboratory of America Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Laboratory of America Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Laboratory of America Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Laboratory of America Holdings Business Description

Laboratory of America Holdings logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
358 South Main Street, Burlington, NC, USA, 27215
Laboratory Corp. of America is one of the nation's two largest independent clinical laboratories, with roughly 20% of the independent lab market. The company operates approximately 2,000 patient-service centers, offering a broad range of 5,000 clinical lab tests, ranging from routine blood and urine screens to complex oncology and genomic testing. With the addition of Covance, LabCorp also has a sizable footprint in the global contract research organization market.
Executives
Wengel Kathryn E director JOHNSON & JOHNSON ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Summy Amy B. officer: EVP, Chief Marketing Officer 531 SOUTH SPRING STREET BURLINGTON NC 27215
Davis Jeffrey A. director 1200 WILSON DRIVE WEST CHESTER PA 19380
Schroeder Mark S officer: EVP, President-Diagnostics Lab 531 SOUTH SPRING STREET BURLINGTON NC 27215
Kirchgraber Paul R officer: CEO, Covance Drug Development 531 SOUTH SPRING STREET BURLINGTON NC 27215
Seltz Judith C officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 531 SOUTH SPRING STREET BURLINGTON NC 27215
Wilkinson Peter J officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer C/O PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT 929 NORTH FRONT STREET WILMINGTON NC 28401
Van Der Vaart Sandra D officer: SVP, Global General Counsel 531 SOUTH SPRING STREET BURLINGTON NC 27215
Caveney Brian J officer: SVP, Chief Medical Officer 531 SOUTH SPRING STREET BURLINGTON NC 27215
Gary M. Huff officer: CEO, LabCorp Diagnostics 531 SOUTH MAIN STREET BURLINGTON NC 27215
Ratliff John D officer: CEO, Covance Drug Development C/O QUINTILES TRANSNATIONAL HOLDINGS INC 4820 EMPEROR BLVD. DURHAM NC 27703
Parham Richelle P director 312 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 1800 CINCINNATI OH 45202
Uthgenannt Lisa J officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 531 SOUTH SPRING STREET BURLINGTON NC 27215
Keller Deborah L officer: CEO, Covance Drug Development 530 HERMAN O. WEST DRIVE EXTON PA 19341
Berberian Lance officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer

Laboratory of America Holdings Headlines

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