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Pfizer Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Pfizer Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Pfizer Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Pfizer's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Pfizer Business Description

Pfizer logo
Address
235 East 42nd Street, New York, NY, USA, 10017
Pfizer is one of the world's largest pharmaceutical firms, with annual sales close to $50 billion (excluding COVID-19 vaccine sales). While it historically sold many types of healthcare products and chemicals, now, prescription drugs and vaccines account for the majority of sales. Top sellers include pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar 13, cancer drug Ibrance, cardiovascular treatment Eliquis, and immunology drug Xeljanz. Pfizer sells these products globally, with international sales representing close to 50% of its total sales. Within international sales, emerging markets are a major contributor.
Executives
Denton David M officer: Chief Financial Officer & EVP 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Pao William officer: Executive Vice President C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY 235 EAST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10017
Mcdermott Michael officer: Executive Vice President C/O PFIZER INC. CORPORATE SECRETARY 235 EAST 42ND STREET 235 EAST 42ND STREET NY 10017
Malik Aamir officer: Executive Vice President C/O PFIZER INC. CORPORATE SECRETARY 235 EAST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10017
Carapezzi William R Jr officer: Executive Vice President 600 MOUNTAIN AVENUE MURRAY HILL NJ 07921
Sahni Payal officer: Executive Vice President ATTN: PFIZER CORP. SECRETARY 235 EAST 42ND ST. NEW YORK NY 10017
Desmond-hellmann Susan director 513 PARNASSUS AVENUE S126 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94143
Hockfield Susan director GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY 41 FARNSWORTH STREET BOSTON MA 02210
Damico Jennifer B. officer: SVP & Controller C/O PFIZER INC. CORPORATE SECRETARY 235 EAST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10017
Quincey James director THE COCA-COLA COMPANY ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA ATLANTA GA 30313
Gottlieb Scott director MOLECULAR INSIGHT PHARMACEUTICALS 160 SECOND STREET CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Fonseca Lidia officer: Executive Vice President 358 SOUTH MAIN STREET BURLINGTON NC 27215
Goettler Michael officer: Group President 1000 MYLAN BOULEVARD CANONSBURG PA 15317
Rogers Dawn officer: Executive Vice President 235 EAST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10017
Littman Dan R. director ATTN: CORPORATE SECRETARY PFIZER INC. 235 E. 42ND ST NEW YORK NY 10017

Pfizer Headlines

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