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Tegna Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Tegna Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Tegna Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Tegna's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Tegna Business Description

Tegna logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
8350 Broad Street, Suite 2000, Tysons, VA, USA, 22102-5151
Tegna Inc is a media company with a portfolio of broadcast stations and digital sites. The firm has around 64 television stations and 2 radio stations in approximately 51 U.S markets. The company owns multicast networks of True Crime Network and Quest. It generates key revenue from advertising and marketing services, subscription, political advertising, and other services.
Executives
Kim Soohyung 10 percent owner C/O STANDARD GENERAL L.P. 767 FIFTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10153
Standard General L.p. 10 percent owner 767 FIFTH AVENUE 12TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10153
Grimes Karen H. director TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Harrison Akinyale S. officer: SVP, General Counsel and Sec. C/O TEGNA INC. 7950 JONES BRANCH DRIVE MCLEAN VA 22107
Bianchini Gina L director 312 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 1800 CINCINNATI OH 45202
Epstein Stuart J. director C/O TEGNA INC. 7950 JONES BRANCH DRIVE MCLEAN VA 22107
Witmer Melinda director C/O TEGNA INC. 7950 JONES BRANCH DRIVE MCLEAN VA 22107
Trelstad Lynn B. officer: EVP and COO - Media Operations C/O TEGNA INC. 7950 JONES BRANCH DRIVE MCLEAN VA 22107
Nolop Bruce P director C/O E*TRADE FINANCIAL CORPORATE SERVICES 135 EAST 57TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10022
Mccune Scott K director C/O GANNETT CO., INC. 7950 JONES BRANCH DRIVE MCLEAN VA 22107
Shapiro Neal director GANNETT CO., INC. 7950 JONES BRANCH DRIVE MCLEAN VA 22107
Ness Susan director C/O ADELPHIA COMMUNICATIONS CORP 5619 DTC PARKWAY EDGEWOOD CO 80111
Elias Howard D director C/O EMC CORPORATION 176 SOUTH STREET HOPKINTON MA 01748
Greenthal Jill A director MARTHA STEWART LIVING OMNIMEDIA INC 11 WEST 42ND STREET 25TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Mcgee Henry Wadsworth Iii director 1300 MORRIS DRIVE CHESTERBROOK PA 19087

Tegna Headlines

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