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Westlake Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Westlake Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Westlake Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Westlake's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Westlake Business Description

Westlake logo
Basic Materials » Chemicals NAICS : 325110 SIC : 2869
Traded in Other Exchanges
2801 Post Oak Boulevard, Suite 600, Houston, TX, USA, 77056
Westlake Corp is a manufacturer and global supplier of chemicals, polymers and building products. Its Performance & Essential Materials segment offers a wide range of essential building blocks for making products utilized in everyday living, including olefins, vinyl chemicals, polyethylene, and epoxies. Its Housing & Infrastructure Products segment produces key finished goods for building products, pipe & fittings, and global compounds businesses.
Sheets Jeffrey Wayne director 600 N. DAIRY ASHFORD HOUSTON TX 77079
Chao John Tsung-chen director, 10 percent owner 26 GRAMERCY PARK SOUTH, 7EF NEW YORK NY 10003
Chao David Tsung-hung director, 10 percent owner 1000 UPTOWN PARK BLVD. #34 HOUSTON TX 77056
Haas Marius director ONE DELL WAY ROUND ROCK TX 78682
Graff Michael J director 2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600 HOUSTON TX 77056
Northcutt R Bruce director 2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600 HOUSTON TX 77056
Jenkins Dorothy C director, 10 percent owner 2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600 HOUSTON TX 77056
Lubel Kimberly S director P.O. BOX 696000 SAN ANTONIO TX 78269-6000
Mccollum Mark A director 3000 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY E. HOUSTON TX 77002
Kearns Roger L. officer: EVP, Vinyls Chemicals 2801 POST OAK BLVD. HOUSTON TX 77056
Zoeller Johnathan Stevan officer: VP and CAO 2801 POST OAK BLVD. SUITE 600 HOUSTON TX 77056
Ttwfgp Llc 10 percent owner 2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600 HOUSTON TX 77056
Chao Albert director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO 2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600 HOUSTON TX 77056
Kenner Andrew officer: SVP - Chemical Manufacturing 2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600 HOUSTON TX 77056
Bender Mark Steven officer: EVP and CFO 2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600 HOUSTON TX 77056

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