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Zoetis Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Zoetis Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Zoetis Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Zoetis's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Zoetis Business Description

Zoetis logo
Industry
Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
10 Sylvan Way, Parsippany, NJ, USA, 07054
Zoetis sells anti-infectives, vaccines, parasiticides, diagnostics, and other health products for animals. The firm earns slightly less than half of total revenue from production animals (cattle, pigs, poultry, and so on), and more than half from companion animal (dogs, horses, cats) products make up the other half. Its U.S. business is heavily skewed toward companion animals, while its international business is slightly skewed toward production animals. The firm has the largest market share in the industry and was previously Pfizer's animal health unit.
Executives
Kelly Robert Edward officer: Executive Vice President C/O ZOETIS INC. 10 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Lagano Roxanne officer: Executive Vice President C/O ZOETIS INC. 100 CAMPUS DRIVE FLORHAM PARK NJ 07940
Chen Heidi C. officer: Executive Vice President C/O ZOETIS INC. 100 CAMPUS DRIVE FLORHAM PARK NJ 07940
Knupp Catherine A. officer: Executive Vice President C/O ZOETIS INC. 100 CAMPUS DRIVE FLORHAM PARK NJ 07940
David Glenn officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O ZOETIS INC., 100 CAMPUS DRIVE FLORHAM PARK NJ 07932
Nayak Abhay U officer: Senior Vice President C/O ZOETIS INC. 10 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Peck Kristin C director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O ZOETIS INC. 100 CAMPUS DRIVE FLORHAM PARK NJ 07940
Bettington Timothy J officer: Executive Vice President C/O ZOETIS INC. 10 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Mamilli Wafaa officer: Executive Vice President C/O ZOETIS INC. 10 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Mcfarland James Michael officer: Executive Vice President C/O ZOETIS INC. 10 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Trawicki Roman officer: Executive Vice President C/O ZOETIS INC. 100 CAMPUS DRIVE FLORHAM PARK NJ 07932
Steere William C Jr director 225 LEROY AVENUE DARIEN CT 06820
Rhodes Linda director 56 EVERGREEN DRIVE PORTLAND ME 04103
Reed Willie M director C/O ZOETIS 100 CAMPUS DRIVE FLORHAM PARK NJ 07932
Alaix Juan Ramon director C/O ZOETIS INC. 10 SYLVAN WAY PARSIPPANY NJ 07054

Zoetis Headlines

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