Origin Bancorp (Origin Bancorp) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2018. Start your Free Trial

What is Origin Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Origin Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Origin Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Origin Bancorp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Origin Bancorp (Origin Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Origin Bancorp Inc (NYSE:OBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500 South Service Road East, Ruston, LA, USA, 71270

Website

https://www.origin.bank

Origin Bancorp Inc is a financial holding company. The bank provides a broad range of financial services to businesses, municipalities, high-net-worth individuals, and retail clients. The bank principally operates in one business segment, community banking. The bank is engaged in attracting deposits from individuals and businesses and using these deposits and borrowed funds to originate commercial, residential mortgage, construction, and consumer loans. The bank generates the majority of its revenue from interest earned on loans and investments, service charges, and fees on deposit accounts.

Executives

Jay Dyer	director	1511 NORTH TRENTON STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
Preston Moore	officer: Chief Credit & Banking Officer	4 SHADY GROVE LANE, HOUSTON TX 77024
Jim Crotwell	officer: Chief Risk Officer	500 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD EAST, RUSTON LA 71270
Michael Aubrey Jones	director	500 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD EAST, RUSTON LA 71270
Wallace Willliam J Iv	officer: Chief Financial Officer	500 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD EAST, RUSTON LA 71270
Derek Mcgee	officer: Chief Legal Counsel	500 SOUTH BANCORP, INC., RUSTON LA 71270
Drake Mills	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	500 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD EAST, RUSTON LA 71270
Gary E. Luffey	director	500 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD EAST, RUSTON LA 71270
Steven Lewis Taylor	director	500 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD EAST, RUSTON LA 71270
Davison James E. Jr.	director	500 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD EAST, RUSTON LA 71270
Lori Sirman	director	1511 NORTH TRENTON STREET, RUSTON LA 71270
Daniel Chu	director	5100 N. O'CONNOR BLVD., 6TH FLOOR, IRVING TX 75039
Meryl Kennedy Farr	director	500 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD EAST, RUSTON LA 71270
Andrea La'verne Edney	director	500 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD EAST, RUSTON LA 71270
Fred Ronnie Myrick	director, officer: Chief Banking Officer	500 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD EAST, RUSTON LA 71270