O'Reilly Automotive (NAS:ORLY) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

O'Reilly Automotive Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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O'Reilly Automotive (NAS:ORLY) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » O'Reilly Automotive Inc (NAS:ORLY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ORLY:Mexico OM6:Germany ORLY34:Brazil ORLY:Austria

Address

233 South Patterson Avenue, Springfield, MO, USA, 65802

Website

https://www.oreillyauto.com

O'Reilly Automotive is one of the largest sellers of aftermarket automotive parts, tools, and accessories, serving professional and DIY customers (41% and 59% of 2021 sales, respectively). The company sells branded as well as own-label products, with the latter category comprising nearly half of sales. O'Reilly had 5,784 stores as of the end of 2021, spread across 47 U.S. states and including 25 stores in Mexico. The firm serves professional and DIY customers through its stores and also boasts approximately 750 sales personnel targeting commercial buyers.

Executives

Philip M Hopper	officer: SVP OF REAL ESTATE	233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Mark Joseph Merz	officer: SVP OF FINANCE	233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Christopher Andrew Mancini	officer: SVP OF CENTRAL STORE OPS/SALES	233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Charles Francis Rogers	officer: SVP OF PRO SALES & OPS SUPPORT	233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Fred Alan Whitfield	director	233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Maria Sastre	director	C/O DARDEN RESTAURANTS, INC., 1000 DARDEN CENTER DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32837
Andrea Weiss	director	23 RAMRAPO COURT WEST, GLENROCK NJ 07452
Jonathan Wyatt Andrews	officer: SVP OF HR & TRAINING	233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Brent Gentry Kirby	officer: SVP OF OMNICHANNEL	233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Richard Darin Venosdel	officer: SVP OF INVENTORY MANAGEMENT	233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Doug D Bragg	officer: SVP OF CENTRAL STORE OPS/SALES	233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Jason Lee Tarrant	officer: SVP OF WESTERN STORE OPS/SALES	233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Dana Perlman	director	C/O 200 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Jeremy Adam Fletcher	officer: SVP OF FINANCE/CONTROLLER	233 SOUTH PATTERSON AVE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802
Robert Allen Dumas	officer: SVP OF EASTERN STORE OPS/SALES	233 S PATTERSON AVE, SPRINGFIELD MO 65802