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Creek Road Miners Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Capital Markets subindustry, Creek Road Miners's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Creek Road Miners Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Capital Markets industry and Financial Services sector, Creek Road Miners's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Creek Road Miners's Predictability Rank falls into.



Creek Road Miners Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Creek Road Miners Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Creek Road Miners's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Creek Road Miners Business Description

Creek Road Miners logo
Industry
Financial Services » Capital Markets NAICS : 523130 SIC : 6221
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2700 Homestead Road, Park City, UT, USA, 84098
Wizard Brands Inc produces live pop culture conventions (Comic Conventions) across the United States that provide a social networking and entertainment venue for enthusiasts of movies, TV shows, video games, technology, toys, social networking, gaming, comic books, and graphic novels. Its Comic Conventions provide an opportunity for companies in the entertainment, toy, gaming, publishing, and retail business to carry out sales, marketing, product promotion, public relations, advertising, and sponsorship efforts. The company receives revenue from its Comic Conventions from three sources namely consumer admissions; exhibitor booth sales; and national and/or regional sponsorships.
Executives
Kessler Paul 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman 662 N. SEPULVEDA BLVD., SUITE 300 LOS ANGELES CA 90049
Macaluso John Michael other: Former 10% owner C/O WIZARD WORLD, INC. 2201 PARK PLACE, SUITE 101 EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Malinoff Randall S officer: Chief Operating Officer 25262 PRADO DE LA PUMA CALABASAS CA 91302
Maatta John D director, officer: President & CEO 15266 VALLEY VISTA BLVD SHERMAN OAKS CA 91403
Mats Vadim director 285 GRAND AVENUE ENGLEWOOD NJ 07631
Suess Gregory director 9701 WILSHIRE BLVD 8TH FLOOR BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Bristol Capital Llc 10 percent owner PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: BRISTOL CAPITAL LLC a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Shamus Kenneth director 11 DEER HORN TRAIL UPPER SADDLE RIVER NJ 07458
Bristol Investment Fund Ltd 10 percent owner 89 NEXUS WAY CAMANA BAY, PO BOX 311063 GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1205
Mathews Michael director 257 PARK AVENUE SOUTH SUITE 602 NEW YORK NY 10010
Fields Terry R director, officer: CEO and CFO 3960 HOWARD HUGHES PKWY #500 LAS VEGAS NV 89169
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