Peoples Financial Services (Peoples Financial Services) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2002. Start your Free Trial

What is Peoples Financial Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Peoples Financial Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Peoples Financial Services Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Peoples Financial Services's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Peoples Financial Services (Peoples Financial Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Peoples Financial Services Corp (NAS:PFIS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

150 North Washington Avenue, Scranton, PA, USA, 18503

Website

https://www.psbt.com

Peoples Financial Services Corp is a bank holding company operating through its subsidiaries. The bank provides a full range of financial services. Its products and services include checking accounts, business accounts, savings accounts, loan products, money market accounts, mortgages, chip-enabled debit cards, credit card processing, and visa master card and advisory services. Its loan portfolio includes Commercial loans, which consist of commercial, commercial real estate, municipal, and other related tax-free loans; and retail loans, which include residential real estate and other consumer loans. The company mainly operates in the United States in Pennsylvania.

Executives

Elisa Z Ramirez	director	1225 17TH STREET, SUITE 2600, DENVER CO 80202
Wright Joseph T Jr	director	P.O. BOX A, HALLSTEAD PA 18822
Aubrey William E Ii	director	PO BOX 158, LAPLUME PA 18440
Locken Richard S Jr	director	50 MAIN STREET, HALLSTEAD PA 18822
Ronald G Kukuchka	director	PO BOX A, HALLSTEAD PA 18822
Jeffrey A Drobins	officer: EVP, Chief Lending Officer	C/O PEOPLES SECURITY BANK & TRUST CO., 150 N WASHINGTON AVE, SCRANTON PA 18503
Thomas P Tulaney	officer: Chief Lending Officer	102 E. DRINKER STREET, DUNMORE PA 18512
Sandra Bodnyk	director	NATIONAL PENN BANCSHARES, INC, 645 HAMILTON STREET, ALLENTOWN PA 18101
Susan L Hubble	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	C/O PEOPLES SECURITY BANK & TRUST CO., 150 N WASHINGTON AVE, SCRANTON PA 18503
Debra E Dissinger	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O PEOPLES SECURITY BANK & TRUST CO., 150 N WASHINGTON AVE, SCRANTON PA 18503
Joseph Ferretti	officer: Vice President	C/O PEOPLES FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP, 50 MAIN STREET, HALLSTEAD PA 18822
Anderson John R Iii	officer: SVP,Int Prin Accting Officer	150 N WASHINGTON AVE, PENN SECURITY BANK & TRUST CO, SCRANTON PA 18503
Stover George H Jr	director	50 MAIN STREET, HALLSTEAD PA 18822
Craig W Best	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O PEOPLES SECURITY BANK & TRUST CO., 150 N WASHINGTON AVE, SCRANTON PA 18503
Cesare Joseph G Md	director	120 OLD ORCHARD RD, CLARKS GREEN PA 18411