Reed's (Reed's) Predictability Rank

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What is Reed's Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Reed's Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Reed's (Reed's) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Non-Alcoholic » Reed's Inc (OTCPK:REED) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

201 Merritt 7, Norwalk, CT, USA, 06851

Website

https://www.drinkreeds.com

Reed's Inc sells Ginger Beer brand. The company's portfolio of handcrafted, all-natural beverages is sold in over 45,000 outlets nationwide including the natural and specialty food channel, grocery stores, mass merchants, drug stores, convenience stores, club stores, and on-premise locations including bars and restaurants. The company's two core brands are Reed's, which includes Reed's Craft Ginger Beer, Reed's Real Ginger Ale, Reed's Mules, and Reed's Hard Ginger Ale; and Virgil's Handcrafted sodas.

Executives

John Bello	director	201 MERRITT 7 CORPORATE PARK, NORWALK CT 06851
Shufen Deng	10 percent owner	ROOMS 3006-07, CHINA RESOURCES BUILDING, 26 HARBOUR ROAD, WANCHAI, HONG KONG K3 000000
D&d Source Of Life Holding Ltd.	10 percent owner	ROOMS 3006-07, CHINA RESOURCES BUILDING, 26 HARBOUR ROAD, WANCHAI, HONG KONG K3 000000
Union Square Park Capital Management, Llc	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	1120 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 1512, NEW YORK NY 10036
Christopher Scott Burleson	officer: CCO	6527 LEDERER AVE, WEST HILLS CA 91307
Thomas Wayne Kosler	director	39919 N. 102ND ST, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85262
Leon Michael Zaltzman	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	1120 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, FLOOR 15, NEW YORK NY 10036
Union Square Park Gp, Llc	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	1120 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Union Square Park Partners, Lp	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	1251 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020
Rhonda Kallman	director	42 BROOK STREET, SCITUATE MA 02066
Thomas J. Spisak	officer: CFO	201 MERRITT 7, NORWALK CT 06851
Snyder Norman E. Jr.	officer: COO	88 GREY ROCKS ROAD, WILTON CT 06897
Richard H. Hubli	officer: COO	36 ROCKHOUSE ROAD, WILTON CT 06897
Joann Christine Tinnelly	officer: INTERIM CFO 11/22/19 -12/1/19	19 NORTON LANE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Lewis Jaffe	director	201 MERRITT 7 CORPORATE PARK, NORWALK CT 06851