RTX (RTX) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1951. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

RTX Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

RTX Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of RTX's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

RTX (RTX) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » RTX Corp (NYSE:RTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RTX:Mexico 5URd:UK 0R2N:UK 5UR0:Germany 5UR:Germany 5UR:Germany 5UR:Germany RTX:Canada RYTT34:Brazil RTX:Austria

Address

1000 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, VA, USA, 22209

Website

https://www.rtx.com

RTX is a diversified aerospace and defense industrial company formed from the merger of United Technologies and Raytheon, with roughly equal exposure as a supplier to commercial aerospace manufacturers and to the defense market. The company operates in three segments: Collins Aerospace, a diversified aerospace supplier; Pratt & Whitney, an aircraft engine manufacturer; and Raytheon, a defense prime contractor providing a mix of missiles, missile defense systems, sensors, hardware, and communications technology to the military.

Executives

Winnefeld James A Jr	director	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Amy L Johnson	officer: Corporate VP and Controller	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Leanne G Caret	director	1000 WILSON BLVD, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Shane G Eddy	officer: President, P&W	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Gregory Hayes	officer: Vice President, Controller	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Christopher T. Calio	officer: Pres, Comm Engines, P&W	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Dantaya M Williams	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Michael R Dumais	officer: SVP, Strategic Planning	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Tracy A Atkinson	director	MFS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 500 BOYLSTON ST., BOSTON MA 02116
Wesley D Kremer	officer: President, RMD	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Ramsaran Maharajh	officer: EVP and General Counsel	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Robert Kelly Ortberg	officer: CEO, Collins Aerospace Systems	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Frank R Jimenez	officer: EVP and General Counsel	GE HEALTHCARE TECHNOLOGIES INC., 500 W. MONROE ST., CHICAGO IL 606061
Harris Bernard A Jr	director	3411 ERIN KNOLL CT, HOUSTON TX 77059
Thomas A Kennedy	director, officer: Executive Chairman	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451