Seafarer Exploration (Seafarer Exploration) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Seafarer Exploration Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Seafarer Exploration (Seafarer Exploration) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Seafarer Exploration Corp (OTCPK:SFRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

14497 N. Dale Mabry Highway, Suite 209-N, Tampa, FL, USA, 33618

Website

https://seafarerexplorationcorp.com

Seafarer Exploration Corp is an underwater research, exploration and recovery company. It develops the infrastructure to engage in the archaeologically sensitive exploration and recovery of historic shipwrecks. The company is engaged in the archaeologically sensitive exploration, documentation, and recovery of historic shipwrecks with the objective of exploring and discovering Colonial-era shipwrecks. Its operating segment includes Blockchain LogisTech, LLC and Seafarer Exploration Corp. The company derives a majority of its revenue from Seafarer Exploration Corp.

Executives

Charles Branscum	director	199 JONES DRIVE, BATESVILLE AR 72501
Bradford S Clark	director	1603 STONEHENGE PLACE, LITTLE ROCK AR 72212
Thomas B Soeder	director	1413 MAYESVILLE WAY, THE VILLAGES FL 32162
Robert L. Kennedy	director	41 TIMBERLANE TRAIL, CONWAY AR 72034-3611
Micah James Eldred	10 percent owner	15500 ROOSEVELT BLVD., SUITE 303, CLEARWATER FL 33760
Pelle Ojasu	director	14497 N. DALE MABRY HIGHWAY, SUITE 209N, TAMPA FL 33618
Credo Argentarius, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	17547 HUGH LANE, LAND O LAKES FL 34638
Linda Gail Kennedy	10 percent owner	17547 HUGH LANE, LAND O LAKES FL 34638
Solar Funding Solutions Corp.	10 percent owner	140 ISLAND WAY, NO. 252, CLEARWATER BEACH FL 33767
Seth M Shaw	director, officer: CEO, President	55 W 25 STREET, APT 33A, NEW YORK NY 10010