Spire (SR) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Spire Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Spire (SR) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Spire Inc (NYSE:SR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SRCU:USA SRpA.PFD:USA LGR:Germany

Address

700 Market Street, Saint Louis, MO, USA, 63101

Website

https://www.spireenergy.com

Spire Inc is a public utility holding company with three reportable business segments: Gas Utility , Gas Marketing and Midstream. The Gas Utility segment includes the regulated operations of Laclede Gas, Alabama Gas Corporation (Alagasco), and EnergySouth Inc. The Utilities businesses operations include the purchase, retail, distribution, and sale of natural gas in Missouri, Alabama, and Mississippi. The Gas Utility segment generates a majority of the company's revenue but is subject to seasonal fluctuations. The Gas Marketing segment includes Laclede Energy Resources, Inc, whose operations include the marketing of natural gas and related activities on a non-regulated basis and the Midstream segment includes transportation and storage of natural gas.

Executives

Paul D Koonce	director	P O BOX 26532, RICHMOND VA 23261
Adam W. Woodard	officer: Treasurer	700 MARKET STREET, ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Steven P Rasche	officer: Executive Vice President	700 MARKET STREET, ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Stephen M Mills	officer: Senior Vice President	700 MARKET STREET, ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Vincent J Ferrari	director	12555 MANCHESTER ROAD, DES PERES MO 63131
Brenda D Newberry	director	700 MARKET STREET, ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Carrie J Hightman	director	C/O NISOURCE INC., 801 E. 86TH AVENUE, MERRILLVILLE IN 46410
Stupp John P Jr	director	STUPP JOHN P JR, #18 ST. ANDREWS DR., ST LOUIS MO 63124
Joseph B. Hampton	officer: President, AL & MS	700 MARKET STREET, ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Scott B. Carter	officer: SVP, COO of Distribution Ops	700 MARKET STREET, ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Stephen S Schwartz	director	46897 BAYSIDE PARKWAY, FREMONT CA 94538
Rob L. Jones	director	555 EAST AIRTEX DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77073
Edward L Glotzbach	director	C/O VISUAL NETWORKS INC, 2092 GAITHER ROAD, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Mark A Borer	director
Van Lokeren Mary Ann	director