Sempra (Sempra) Predictability Rank

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What is Sempra Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sempra Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sempra (Sempra) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Sempra (NYSE:SRE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SE4:Germany SE4:Germany

Address

488 8th Avenue, San Diego, CA, USA, 92101

Website

https://www.sempra.com

Sempra Energy serves one of the largest utility customer bases in the United States. It distributes natural gas and electricity in Southern California and owns 80% of Oncor, a transmission and distribution business in Texas. SoCalGas and San Diego Gas & Electric distribute gas to more than 20 million customers, while Oncor serves more than 10 million Texas customers. Sempra Infrastructure partners, of which Sempra holds a controlling ownership, owns and operates liquefied natural gas facilities in North America and infrastructure in Mexico.

Executives

Richard J Mark	director	1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE MC-1310, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Jeffrey W Martin	director, officer: Chairman, CEO and President	101 ASH STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92101
Karen L Sedgwick	officer: Chief HR Officer, CAO	488 8TH AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92101
Peter R Wall	officer: SVP, Controller and CAO	488 8TH AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92101
Trevor I Mihalik	officer: Executive VP and CFO	101 ASH STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92101
Bethany Mayer	director	C/O IXIA, 26601 W. AGOURA ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302
Alan L Boeckmann	director	C/O FLUOR CORP, ONE ENTERPRISE DR, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Cynthia Lynn Walker	director	5 GREENWAY PLAZA, HOUSTON TX 77046
Maria Contreras-sweet	director	488 8TH AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92101
Andres Conesa	director	488 8TH AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92101
Michael N Mears	director	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, MD 28-1, TULSA OK 74172
Jones William D /ca/	director
James C Yardley	director	1001 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Cynthia J Warner	director	1925 WEST FIELD COURT, SUITE 200, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Jack T Taylor	director	10951 SANCTUARY DRIVE, SHREVEPORT LA 71106