SYBX (Synlogic) Predictability Rank

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What is Synlogic Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Synlogic Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Synlogic Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Synlogic Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Synlogic Inc (NAS:SYBX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0A8U:UK

Address

PO Box 30, Winchester, MA, USA, 01890

Website

https://www.synlogictx.com

Synlogic Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focuses on rare metabolic disorders, with a lead program in phenylketonuria (PKU) and homocystinuria (HCU). The company's pipeline includes therapeutics for enteric hyperoxaluria, gout, and cystinuria. Using a proprietary approach, the company engineer GI-restricted, oral medicines from well-characterized probiotics. These drug candidates target specific biological pathways, leveraging Escherichia coli Nissle 1917 for consistency and safety. Engineered to be non-colonizing and reversible, the company offer oral administration, simplifying shipping and storage. The company operates in one segment-discovery and development of Synthetic Biotics-pioneering transformative treatments for serious diseases.

Executives

Antoine Awad	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O SYNLOGIC, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, SUITE 402, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Michael Vangsted Jensen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	301 BINNEY STREET, SUITE 402, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Aoife Brennan	officer: Chief Medical Officer	200 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 320, C/O SYNLOGIC, INC., CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Lisa Kelly-croswell	director	C/O SYNLOGIC, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, SUITE 402, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Michael Thomas Heffernan	director	C/O CORNERSTONE THERAPEUTICS INC., 1255 CRESCENT GREEN DRIVE, SUITE 250, CARY NC 27518
Michael F. Burgess	director	C/O SYNLOGIC, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, SUITE 402, CAMRIDGE MA 02142
Richard P Shea	director	C/O MOMENTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 43 MOULTON STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Gregg Beloff	officer: See Remarks	C/O CERULEAN PHARMA INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Richard J. Riese	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O SYNLOGIC, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, SUITE 402, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Ginkgo Bioworks, Inc.	10 percent owner	27 DRYDOCK AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02210
Scott Eric Plevy	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	301 BINNEY STREET, #402, C/O SYNLOGIC, INC., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Paul Francis Miller	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	200 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 320, C/O SYNLOGIC, INC., CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Patricia N. Hurter	director	C/O SYNLOGIC, INC., 301 BINNEY ST., SUITE 402, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Andrew Gengos	officer: See Remarks	21900 BURBANK BOULEVARD, 3RD FLOOR, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367
Todd Shegog	officer: See Remarks	200 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 320, C/O SYNLOGIC, INC., CAMBRIDGE MA 02139