What is Texas Capital Bancshares Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Texas Capital Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Texas Capital Bancshares (Texas Capital Bancshares) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2000 McKinney Avenue, Suite 700, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201
Texas Capital Bancshares Inc is a secured lender, with the majority of the loans held for investment, excluding mortgage finance loans and other national lines of business. The company's national lines of business provide specialized lending products to businesses throughout the United States. The bank operates in Texas' main metropolitan areas, like Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio.
Executives
| Robert W Stallings |
director |
5242 BUENA VISTA DRIVE, FRISCO TX 75034 |
| Laura L Whitley |
director |
2000 MCKINNEY AVE SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| John W Cummings |
officer: Chief Administrative Officer |
2000 MCKINNEY AVE SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Thomas E Long |
director |
370 17TH STREET, SUITE 2775, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Timothy J Storms |
officer: Chief Risk Officer |
2000 MCKINNEY AVE, STE 700, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Elysia Holt Ragusa |
director |
901 S. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, RICHARDSON TX 75080 |
| John Matthew Scurlock |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2000 MCKINNEY AVE SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Paola M Arbour |
director |
14201 DALLAS PARKWAY, DALLAS TX 75254 |
| Charles S Hyle |
director |
191C MAIN STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840 |
| James H Browning |
director |
3760 JARDIN, HOUSTON TX 77005 |
| Julie L Anderson |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
2000 MCKINNEY AVE STE 700, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| David S. Huntley |
director |
208 S. AKARD, ROOM 2900;07, DALLAS TX 75202 |
| Larry L Helm |
director |
1000 LOUISIANA, SUITE 5600, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Anna M Alvarado |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
1600 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Rob C Holmes |
officer: President and CEO |
2000 MCKINNEY AVE, STE 700, DALLAS TX 75201 |
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