Thryv Holdings (Thryv Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Thryv Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Thryv Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Thryv Holdings (Thryv Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Thryv Holdings Inc (NAS:THRY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2200 West Airfield Drive, P.O. Box 619810, DFW Airport, Dallas, TX, USA, 75261

Website

https://www.thryv.com

Thryv Holdings Inc provides software as service (SaaS) management tools and digital and print marketing tools to small and mid-sized businesses. The company operates in four reportable segments namely Thryv U.S. Marketing Services, Thryv U.S. SaaS, Thryv International Marketing Services, and Thryv International SaaS. It generates maximum revenue from the Thryv U.S. Marketing Services segment.

Executives

Joe Walsh	director, officer: CEO and President	C/O CAMBIUM LEARNING GROUP, INC., 17855 N. DALLAS PARKWAY SUITE 400, DALLAS TX 75287
Grant Freeman	officer: President	2200 WEST AIRFIELD DRIVE PO BOX 619810, DFW AIRPORT TX 75261
Mudrick Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	527 MADISON AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Amer Akhtar	director	C/O THRYV HOLDINGS, INC., 2200 WEST AIRFIELD DRIVE P.O. BOX 619810, DALLAS TX 75261
Ryan Ohara	director	6922 HOLLYWOOD BLVD., 12TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90028
Bonnie Kintzer	director	C/O THRYV HOLDINGS, INC., 2200 WEST AIRFIELD DRIVE P.O. BOX 619810, DALLAS TX 75261
Heather Zynczak	director	C/O THRYV HOLDINGS, INC., 2200 WEST AIRFIELD DRIVE P.O. BOX 619810, DALLAS TX 75261
Goldentree Asset Management Lp	10 percent owner	300 PARK AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Paulson & Co. Inc.	10 percent owner	1133 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jason Mudrick	director, 10 percent owner	C/O MUDRICK CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 527 MADISON AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Goldentree Asset Management Llc	10 percent owner	300 PARK AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steven A. Tananbaum	10 percent owner	300 PARK AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Lauren Vaccarello	director	2200 WEST AIRFIELD DRIVE, P.O. BOX 619810, DALLAS TX 75261
Verto Direct Opportunity Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	C/O MUDRICK CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 527 MADISON AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Mudrick Distressed Opportunity Fund Global, Lp	10 percent owner	527 MADISON AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022