VRAYQ (ViewRay) Predictability Rank

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What is ViewRay Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ViewRay Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

ViewRay Predictability Rank Related Terms

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ViewRay Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » ViewRay Inc (OTCPK:VRAYQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1099 18th Street, Suite 3000, Denver, CO, USA, 80202

Website

https://www.viewray.com

ViewRay Inc is a radiation therapy and imaging technology company. It designs, manufactures, and markets radiation therapy systems that provide real-time imaging during radiation treatment. Its product portfolio encompasses The MRIdian linac system, The MRIdian system, the Monte Carlo treatment planning system, etc. The company holds the license for its combination of MRI and radiation therapy technologies. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Karen Prange	director	1108 S RIO VISTA BLVD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33316
B Kristine Johnson	director	366 FERNDALE RD S, WAYZATA MN 55391
Sanket Shah	officer: SVP, General Counsel	C/O VIEWRAY, INC., 2 THERMO FISHER WAY, OAKWOOD VILLAGE OH 44146
Farhad Fred Ebrahimi	10 percent owner	191 UNIVERSITY BLVD., #246, DENVER CO 80206
Caley Castelein	director	THOM. WEISEL HEALTHCARE VENTURES, ONE MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Paul Jr Ziegler	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O VIEWRAY, INC., 2 THERMO FISHER WAY, OAKWOOD VILLAGE OH 44146
Scott William Drake	director, officer: President and CEO	9965 FEDERAL DRIVE, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80921
Adam Andrew Podbelski	officer: SVP, Customer Services	C/O VIEWRAY, INC., 2 THERMO FISHER WAY, OAKWOOD VILLAGE OH 44146
Jacob Edward Signoriello	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VIEWRAY, INC., 1099 18TH STREET, SUITE 3000, DENVER CO 80202
James F. Dempsey	director, officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O VIEWRAY INCORPORATED, 2 THERMO FISHER WAY, OAKWOOD VILLAGE OH 44146
Burke William P. Mr.	officer: Chief Financial Officer	HAEMONETICS CORPORATION, 400 WOOD ROAD, BRAINTREE MA 02184
Susan C Schnabel	director	C/O CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON, 11 MADISON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Brian K Roberts	director	DIGITAS INC.,, 800 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02199
Zachary William Stassen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VIEWRAY, INC., 2 THERMO FISHER WAY, OAKWOOD VILLAGE OH 44146
Daniel Jeffrey Moore	director	100 CYBERONICS BVLD, HOUSTON TX 77058