Workiva (Workiva) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Workiva Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Workiva (Workiva) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Workiva Inc (NYSE:WK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0WKA:Germany 0WKA:Germany

Address

2900 University Boulevard, Ames, IA, USA, 50010

Website

https://www.workiva.com

Workiva Inc is a cloud-native platform that simplifies the complexities of reporting and compliance. Workiva platform empowers customers by connecting and transforming data from hundreds of enterprise resource planning (ERP), human capital management (HCM), and customer relationship management (CRM) systems, as well as other third-party cloud and on-premise applications. Customers use the platform to create, review and publish data-linked documents and reports with greater control, consistency, accuracy, and productivity and it is also used for SEC Filings. The firm derives its revenue in the form of subscription and support fees and the remainder from professional services.

Executives

Jill Klindt	officer: VP & CAO	2900 UNIVERSITY BLVD, AMES IA 50010
Brandon Ziegler	officer: Senior Vice President, other: Gen Counsel & Corp. Secretary	C/O WORKIVA INC., 2900 UNIVERSITY BLVD., AMES IA 50010
Robert H Herz	director	C/O FANNIE MAE, 1100 15TH STREET, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Michael D. Hawkins	officer: EVP, Sales	2900 UNIVERSITY BLVD., AMES IA 50010
Junko Swain	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	2900 UNIVERSITY BLVD., AMES IA 50010
Michael M Crow	director	20 W. 9TH STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Brigid A Bonner	director	C/O ANALYSTS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION, 3601 WEST 76TH STREET, EDINA MN 55435
Mithun Banarjee	officer: EVP, Global Client Services	2900 UNIVERSITY BOULEVARD, AMES IA 50010
Jeff D Trom	10 percent owner, officer: Executive VP & CTO	2900 UNIVERSITY BLVD., AMES IA 50010
Martin J Vanderploeg	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & COO	2900 UNIVERSITY BLVD., AMES IA 50010
Julie Iskow	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	2900 UNIVERSITY BOULEVARD, AMES X1 50010
J Stuart Miller	officer: Executive VP, Treasurer & CFO	2900 UNIVERSITY BLVD., AMES IA 50010
Eugene S Katz	director	8 GOLDSBOROUGH ST., EASTON MD 21601
Troy M. Calkins	officer: Executive VP, Secretary & GC	55 WEST MONROE, SUITE 3150, CHICAGO IL 60603
Scott G. Ryan	officer: Executive VP, Global Sales	2900 UNIVERSITY BOULEVARD, AMES IA 50010