Zymeworks (Zymeworks) Predictability Rank

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What is Zymeworks Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zymeworks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Zymeworks (Zymeworks) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Zymeworks Inc (NAS:ZYME) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ZA8:Germany

Address

108 Patriot Drive, Suite A, Middletown, DE, USA, 19709

Website

https://www.zymeworks.com

Zymeworks Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the discovery, development and commercialization of next-generation multifunctional biotherapeutics. Its suite of therapeutic platforms and its fully integrated drug development engine enable precise engineering of differentiated product candidates. Its clinical candidate, zanidatamab, is a novel Azymetric HER2-targeted bispecific antibody currently being evaluated in multiple Phase 1, Phase 2, and pivotal clinical trials globally as a targeted treatment option for patients with solid tumors that express HER2. The company is also advancing a deep preclinical pipeline in oncology and other therapeutic areas.

Executives

Paul Andrew Moore	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	114 EAST 4TH AVENUE, SUITE 800, VANCOUVER A1 V5T 1G4
Christopher Astle	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	114 EAST 4TH AVENUE, SUITE 800, VANCOUVER A1 V5T 1G4
Kenneth Galbraith	director, officer: Chair & CEO	OCEAN PARK RPO PO BOX 45025, 12851 16TH AVE, SURREY A1 V4A9L1
Carlos Campoy	director	11804 NORTH CREEK PARKWAY SOUTH, BOTHELL WA 98011
Ecor1 Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	357 TEHAMA STREET #3, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Miller Derek John Michael	director	108 PATRIOT DRIVE, SUITE A, 1385 WEST 8TH AVENUE, SUITE 540, MIDDLETOWN DE 19709
Neil A Klompas	officer: President & COO	114 EAST 4TH AVENUE, SUITE 800, VANCOUVER A1 V5T 1G4
Lota S. Zoth	director	334 CR 692, BUFFALO GAP TX 79508
Troy Cox	director	C/O FOUNDATION MEDICINE, INC., C/O FOUNDATION MEDICINE, INC., 150 SECON, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Kenneth J. Hillan	director	C/O ACHAOGEN, INC., 7000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 371, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Hollings Renton	director
Kelvin Neu	director	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Natalie Sacks	director	C/O ADURO BIOTECH, INC., 740 HEINZ AVENUE, BERKELEY CA 94710
Susan Mahony	director	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Neil Josephson	officer: Chief Medical Officer	114 EAST 4TH AVENUE, SUITE 800, VANCOUVER A1 V5T 1G4