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Tourism HoldingsASX:THL +3.96%69 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.77% as of Jun. 2025, which is 401% above its 10-year median of 2.15. GuruFocus rates ASX:THL with a GF Score™ of 69/100 and a GF Value™ of A$1.82 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 11 warning signs investors should review. Among 991 Vehicles & Parts companies, Tourism Holdings ranks worse than 100908.07% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Tourism Holdings's forward rate of return for was 10.77%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Tourism Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 3 years, Tourism Holdings's highest Forward Rate of Return was 10.94. The lowest was -10.45. And the median was 2.15.
ASX:THL's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is not ranked *
in the Vehicles & Parts industry.
Industry Median: 10.12 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % only.
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Tourism Holdings (ASX:THL) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Tourism Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Tourism Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Tourism Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Tourism Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
ASX:THL vs BC, PII, THO: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Recreational Vehicles subindustry, Tourism Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Tourism Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Vehicles & Parts Industry
For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Tourism Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Tourism Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Tourism Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 10.77% mean?
Tourism Holdings (ASX:THL) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 10.77% as of Jun. 2025. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Tourism Holdings and its competitors. This is 401% above median its historical median of 2.15. According to the industry distribution chart, Tourism Holdings ranks #999999 out of 991 companies in the Vehicles & Parts industry.
Is Tourism Holdings' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Tourism Holdings' current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 10.77% is 401% above median its 10-year median of 2.15. The Vehicles & Parts industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.12. Tourism Holdings' value of 10.77% is 6.4% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Tourism Holdings ranks #999999 out of 991 companies in the Vehicles & Parts industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Tourism Holdings has a GF Score™ of 69/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Tourism Holdings' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to BC and PII?
According to the Vehicles & Parts industry distribution chart, Tourism Holdings ranks #999999 out of 991 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Tourism Holdings in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.12. Tourism Holdings' value of 10.77% is 6.4% above this benchmark. While the company's 10-year median is 2.15 vs. the industry median of 10.12, Tourism Holdings has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Vehicles & Parts company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Vehicles & Parts companies is 10.12, based on 991 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Tourism Holdings's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 10.77% is 6.4% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Tourism Holdings and its competitors. For the Vehicles & Parts industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.12 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Tourism Holdings's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.77%, which is 401% above median its own 10-year median of 2.15. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Tourism Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Tourism Holdings (ASX:THL) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$1.82, compared to a current price of A$2.36 — trading 29.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.77%, which is 401% above median its 10-year median of 2.15 and 6.4% above the Vehicles & Parts industry median of 10.12. Tourism Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 69/100 with 11 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Tourism Holdings (ASX:THL), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.77% as of Jun. 2025. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Tourism Holdings (ASX:THL) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Tourism Holdings stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of A$2.36 is trading 29.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of A$1.82.
GuruFocus considers Tourism Holdings to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for ASX:THL:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 10.77% (401% above median its 10-year median of 2.15)
GF Value™: A$1.82 vs. price of A$2.36 (29.7% above fair value)
Industry Position: 6.4% above the Vehicles & Parts median (#999999 of 991)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:THL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Tourism Holdings Ltd is a New Zealand-based company engaged in the design, manufacture, rental, and sale of motorhomes and other tourism-related activities. The company operates in the following segments namely New Zealand Rentals; Action Manufacturing; Tourism Group; Australia Rentals, sales and manufacturing; United States Rentals and corporate. It generates maximum revenue from Australia Rentals segment.
69GF Score
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