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Athabasca OilATHOF -0.67%59 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 23.38% as of Jun. 2026, which is 2% above its 10-year median of 22.92. GuruFocus rates ATHOF with a GF Scoreâ„¢ of 59/100 and a GF Valueâ„¢ of $4.40 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 1 warning sign investors should review. Among 598 Oil & Gas companies, Athabasca Oil ranks better than 76.59% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Athabasca Oil's forward rate of return for was 23.38%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Athabasca Oil's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
ATHOF'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 22.53 Med: 22.92 Max: 23.36
Current: 23.34
During the past 13 years, Athabasca Oil's highest Forward Rate of Return was 23.36. The lowest was 22.53. And the median was 22.92.
ATHOF's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 76.59% of 598
companies
in the Oil & Gas industry
Industry Median: 13.505
vs ATHOF: 23.34
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Athabasca Oil (OTCPK:ATHOF) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Athabasca Oil Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Athabasca Oil Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Athabasca Oil's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Athabasca Oil Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
ATHOF vs COP, EOG, FANG: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, Athabasca Oil's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Athabasca Oil Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Athabasca Oil's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Athabasca Oil's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Athabasca Oil Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
Athabasca Oil's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2026 is
Forward Rate of Return
=
Normalized Free Cash Flow
/
Price
+
5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=
0.25542857
/
7.21
+
0.1786
=
21.40 %
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 23.38% mean?
Athabasca Oil (ATHOF) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 23.38% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Athabasca Oil and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 22.92. Over the past decade, Athabasca Oil's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 22.53 to 23.36. According to the industry distribution chart, Athabasca Oil ranks #140 out of 598 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, placing it in the top 23.4%.
Is Athabasca Oil's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Athabasca Oil's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 23.38% is near median its 10-year median of 22.92. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 22.53 to a high of 23.36. The Oil & Gas industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.51. Athabasca Oil's value of 23.38% is 73.1% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Athabasca Oil ranks #140 out of 598 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Athabasca Oil has a GF Score™ of 59/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Athabasca Oil's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to COP and EOG?
According to the Oil & Gas industry distribution chart, Athabasca Oil ranks #140 out of 598 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Athabasca Oil in the top 23% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.51. Athabasca Oil's value of 23.38% is 73.1% above this benchmark. Historically, Athabasca Oil's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 22.53 to 23.36 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 22.92 vs. the industry median of 13.51, Athabasca Oil has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for an Oil & Gas company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Oil & Gas companies is 13.51, based on 598 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Athabasca Oil's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 23.38% is 73.1% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Athabasca Oil and its competitors. For the Oil & Gas industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.51 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Athabasca Oil's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 23.38%, which is near median its own 10-year median of 22.92. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Athabasca Oil stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Athabasca Oil (ATHOF) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $4.40, compared to a current price of $7.37 — trading 67.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 23.38%, which is near median its 10-year median of 22.92 and 73.1% above the Oil & Gas industry median of 13.51. Athabasca Oil's overall GF Score™ is 59/100 with 1 warning sign to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Athabasca Oil (ATHOF), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 23.38% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Athabasca Oil (ATHOF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Athabasca Oil stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $7.37 is trading 67.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of $4.40.
GuruFocus considers Athabasca Oil to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for ATHOF:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 23.38% (near median its 10-year median of 22.92)
GF Value™: $4.40 vs. price of $7.37 (67.5% above fair value)
Industry Position: 73.1% above the Oil & Gas median (#140 of 598)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ATHOF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Athabasca Oil Corp is an exploration and production company developing Thermal Oil and Light Oil resources in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin located in Alberta, Canada. It operates through two segments: Athabasca (Thermal Oil), focused on bitumen production from oil sands in the Athabasca region of Northern Alberta, and Duvernay Energy, focused on the production of light and medium crude oil, tight oil, natural gas, shale gas, and natural gas liquids in the Greater Kaybob area near Fox Creek, Alberta. The majority of its revenue is derived from petroleum, natural gas, and midstream sales through the Athabasca segment.
59GF Score
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