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CME GroupCME +1.52%84 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.40% as of Jun. 2026, which is 37% above its 10-year median of 11.25. GuruFocus rates CME with a GF Score™ of 84/100 and a GF Value™ of $271.89 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 512 Capital Markets companies, CME Group ranks better than 61.72% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. CME Group's forward rate of return for was 15.40%.
The historical rank and industry rank for CME Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
CME'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.57 Med: 11.25 Max: 15.84
Current: 14.55
During the past 13 years, CME Group's highest Forward Rate of Return was 15.84. The lowest was 3.57. And the median was 11.25.
CME's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 61.72% of 512
companies
in the Capital Markets industry
Industry Median: 9.49
vs CME: 14.55
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
CME Group (NAS:CME) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
CME Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
CME Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for CME Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
CME Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
CME vs ICE, MCO, SPGI: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges subindustry, CME Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
CME Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Capital Markets Industry
For the Capital Markets industry and Financial Services sector, CME Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where CME Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
CME Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
CME Group's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2026 is
Forward Rate of Return
=
Normalized Free Cash Flow
/
Price
+
5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=
9.52114286
/
220.83
+
0.1109
=
15.40 %
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 15.40% mean?
CME Group (CME) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 15.40% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on CME Group and its competitors. This is 37% above median its historical median of 11.25. Over the past decade, CME Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 3.57 to 15.84. According to the industry distribution chart, CME Group ranks #196 out of 512 companies in the Capital Markets industry, placing it in the top 38.3%.
Is CME Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
CME Group's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 15.40% is 37% above median its 10-year median of 11.25. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 3.57 to a high of 15.84. The Capital Markets industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.49. CME Group's value of 15.40% is 62.3% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, CME Group ranks #196 out of 512 companies in the Capital Markets industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, CME Group has a GF Score™ of 84/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does CME Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to ICE and MCO?
According to the Capital Markets industry distribution chart, CME Group ranks #196 out of 512 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This puts CME Group in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.49. CME Group's value of 15.40% is 62.3% above this benchmark. Historically, CME Group's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 3.57 to 15.84 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 11.25 vs. the industry median of 9.49, CME Group has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Capital Markets company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Capital Markets companies is 9.49, based on 512 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. CME Group's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 15.40% is 62.3% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on CME Group and its competitors. For the Capital Markets industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.49 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. CME Group's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.40%, which is 37% above median its own 10-year median of 11.25. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is CME Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, CME Group (CME) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $271.89, compared to a current price of $274.98 — trading 1.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.40%, which is 37% above median its 10-year median of 11.25 and 62.3% above the Capital Markets industry median of 9.49. CME Group's overall GF Score™ is 84/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For CME Group (CME), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.40% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is CME Group (CME) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, CME Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $274.98 is trading 1.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of $271.89.
GuruFocus considers CME Group to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for CME:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 15.40% (37% above median its 10-year median of 11.25)
GF Value™: $271.89 vs. price of $274.98 (1.1% above fair value)
Industry Position: 62.3% above the Capital Markets median (#196 of 512)
No single metric tells the full story. See the CME stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Based in Chicago, CME Group operates exchanges giving investors, suppliers, and businesses the ability to trade futures and derivatives based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign currencies, energy, metals, and commodities. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange was founded in 1898 and in 2002 completed its IPO. Since then, CME Group has consolidated parts of the industry by merging with crosstown rival CBOT Holdings in 2007 before acquiring Nymex Holdings in 2008 and NEX in 2018. In addition, the company has a 27% stake in S&P Dow Jones Indexes, making the Chicago Mercantile Exchange the exclusive venue to trade and clear S&P futures contracts. Through CME's acquisition of NEX, it also expanded into cash foreign exchange, fixed-income trading, and collateral optimization.
84GF Score
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Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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