Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Federal SignalFRA:FSG -9.35%95 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 22.02% as of Jun. 2026, which is 32% above its 10-year median of 16.64. GuruFocus rates FRA:FSG with a GF Score™ of 95/100 and a GF Value™ of €98.98 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 171 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery companies, Federal Signal ranks better than 83.63% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Federal Signal's forward rate of return for was 22.02%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Federal Signal's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
FRA:FSG'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 9 Med: 16.64 Max: 25.86
Current: 22.11
During the past 13 years, Federal Signal's highest Forward Rate of Return was 25.86. The lowest was 9.00. And the median was 16.64.
FRA:FSG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 83.63% of 171
companies
in the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry
Industry Median: 9.94
vs FRA:FSG: 22.11
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Federal Signal (FRA:FSG) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Federal Signal Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Federal Signal Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Federal Signal's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Federal Signal Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
FRA:FSG vs TEX, AGCO, OSK: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery subindustry, Federal Signal's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Federal Signal Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Industry
For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry and Industrials sector, Federal Signal's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Federal Signal's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Federal Signal Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 22.02% mean?
Federal Signal (FRA:FSG) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 22.02% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Federal Signal and its competitors. This is 32% above median its historical median of 16.64. Over the past decade, Federal Signal's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 9.00 to 25.86. According to the industry distribution chart, Federal Signal ranks #28 out of 171 companies in the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry, placing it in the top 16.4%.
Is Federal Signal's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Federal Signal's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 22.02% is 32% above median its 10-year median of 16.64. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 9.00 to a high of 25.86. The Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.94. Federal Signal's value of 22.02% is 121.5% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Federal Signal ranks #28 out of 171 companies in the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Federal Signal has a GF Score™ of 95/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Federal Signal's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to TEX and AGCO?
According to the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry distribution chart, Federal Signal ranks #28 out of 171 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Federal Signal in the top 16% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.94. Federal Signal's value of 22.02% is 121.5% above this benchmark. Historically, Federal Signal's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 9.00 to 25.86 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 16.64 vs. the industry median of 9.94, Federal Signal has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery companies is 9.94, based on 171 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Federal Signal's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 22.02% is 121.5% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Federal Signal and its competitors. For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.94 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Federal Signal's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 22.02%, which is 32% above median its own 10-year median of 16.64. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Federal Signal stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Federal Signal (FRA:FSG) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is €98.98, compared to a current price of €97.00 — trading 2% below its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 22.02%, which is 32% above median its 10-year median of 16.64 and 121.5% above the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry median of 9.94. Federal Signal's overall GF Score™ is 95/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Federal Signal (FRA:FSG), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 22.02% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Federal Signal (FRA:FSG) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Federal Signal stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of €97.00 is trading 2% below its estimated GF Value™ of €98.98.
GuruFocus considers Federal Signal to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for FRA:FSG:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 22.02% (32% above median its 10-year median of 16.64)
GF Value™: €98.98 vs. price of €97.00 (2% below fair value)
Industry Position: 121.5% above the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median (#28 of 171)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:FSG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Federal Signal Corp designs and manufactures products and integrated solutions for municipal, governmental, industrial, and airport customers. It operates through two segments. The Environmental Solutions Group manufactures and supplies street sweeper vehicles, sewer cleaner and vacuum loader trucks, hydro-excavation trucks, high-performance water blasting equipment, dump truck bodies, and trailers. The Safety and Security Systems Group manufactures and supplies comprehensive systems and products used by law enforcement, fire rescue, and industrial sites to protect people and property. Its offerings include systems for community alerting and industrial communications. The company generates the majority of its revenue from the Environmental Solutions Group segment.
95GF Score
Get the complete analysis for FRA:FSG
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
FRA:FSG has been successfully added to your 
